Khamenei did this to himself. The US can help — without another Middle East quagmire
Last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei effectively greenlit mass killing to save his regime. His message was blunt: blood would be spilled to preserve the system. His security forces followed through, unleashing a level of violence against protesters that even by the Islamic Republic’s grim standards marks a dangerous escalation.
Iran is facing the largest demonstrations since 2022, when the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody ignited a nationwide uprising. This time, the unrest comes as the Islamic Republic is unusually exposed—still reeling from a bruising 12-day war with Israel last summer. What does this moment mean for the regime’s survival? How is this wave of protests different from those that came before? And is there anything the outside world can do to support Iran’s pro-democracy movement without backfiring?
America’s dramatic capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has set the stage for the conduct of America’s national security strategy in 2026. It has also raised questions.
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a conversation from MEI’s Virtual Briefing Series. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Alan Eyre and Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka to discuss the ongoing protests in Iran. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, an ally of Tehran. Eyre and Vatanka discuss what these latest developments mean for an Iranian regime already under intense internal and international pressure; the political impact of President Trump’s threats; the limits of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s power to de-escalate the situation at home; and how the instability inside Iran may affect the wider region.
Iran’s political deadlock — and a way out the regime is unlikely to take
On Sunday, December 28, Iran’s latest wave of unrest began not on a university campus or in a symbolic political square, but in the very heart of the country’s economic sphere: the Grand Bazaar commercial center in downtown Tehran. What distinguishes the current moment is not simply the persistence of unrest but its emotional register. Iranian commentary increasingly describes not just hardship but a collapse of expectations of a better future.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance after the 12-day war: Adaptation, restructuring, and reconstitution
Since Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, Tehran and its network of regional proxies and non-state allies, the so-called Axis of Resistance, have entered a phase of strategic dormancy — an outward calm concealing rearmament, financial adaptation, and ideological renewal.
Brian sits down with Robert Malley, a former US official best known for his role as the lead negotiator of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Malley discusses the motivations behind his new book, Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, and offers his assessment of American perspectives on the war in Gaza. The conversation also explores his personal background as the son of an Egyptian Jewish father and an American Jewish mother—both outspoken on the political left—and how that upbringing shaped his worldview, alongside a career spanning the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations.
This backgrounder provides an overview of the Axis of Resistance, a loosely aligned network of armed groups and state actors led and supported by Iran to project its influence and military strength across the Middle East.
How Iraq’s vote will shape the next phase of US-Iran competition
For Iran, Iraq is strategic depth, political sanctuary, and economic lifeline all at once. The results of the November 11 Iraqi elections will decide who in Baghdad controls the budgetary levers, internal security appointments, and committees that could codify, or constrain, Iraq’s Iran-backed militias.
The taboo of regret: Iranian reflections on the seizure of the US embassy in 1979
For decades, the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran has symbolized the righteousness of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s revolutionary defiance and the legitimacy of “resistance” as state ideology. To question it is to pry open the logic of the entire enterprise.
Pakistan’s strategic defense pact with Saudi Arabia: A new security architecture in the wider Middle East
Following Israel’s September 9 strike on Hamas targets in Qatar, Pakistan has taken swift and significant foreign policy steps in response and adopted an unusually assertive stance. This shift was largely influenced by Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. The latter is determined to enhance his country’s strategic autonomy and diplomatic leverage in an increasingly complex international environment by positioning Pakistan as a key security actor and an emerging middle power on the global stage.
Silent leverage, quiet gains? China and the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signed in Riyadh on September 17, is far more than a bilateral pledge. It represents a profound reordering of alignments in the Gulf and South Asia, reflecting and reinforcing the broader erosion of US preeminence in the Eurasian security architecture. While much of the initial commentary centered on the striking commitment of a wealthy Gulf monarchy to the defense of a nuclear-armed South Asian state, as well as the question of whether Pakistan had in fact extended its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, the deeper story is arguably China’s potential advance.
A Middle East NATO? Regional Security Options After Doha
Israel’s September 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Doha rattled Gulf capitals and revived a decades-old debate over whether the region needs a NATO-style defensive alliance. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack why past attempts at collective defense have fallen short, whether this moment is different, and what the crisis means for US security strategy in the Middle East.
Strategic drift in US Middle East policy as Trump speaks on the world stage
President Donald Trump used his speech this week before the United Nations General Assembly to reinforce his unique style of US foreign policy-making and levy criticisms against others, including the UN itself. But Trump did little to create a framework for crafting solutions to address problems and thorny security challenges.
The coming weeks may prove decisive in Europe’s long struggle to manage Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany announced they will trigger the “snapback” sanctions mechanism. Whether Europe’s gamble succeeds will determine both the future of non-proliferation and the credibility of Europe as a strategic actor.
