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Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
  • Analysis
  • Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities

    In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.

    Gulf Political Economy: The Cost of Accommodating Iran
  • Analysis
  • Gulf Political Economy: The Cost of Accommodating Iran

    There may be no near-term resolution to the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The cease-fire and memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on June 18  have broken down, there is little diplomatic engagement, and new flare-ups in early September indicate a further round of escalation. Gulf states may have no choice but to protect their assets and populations while trying to deter Iran by finding mechanisms of both containment and accommodation.

    Gulf Energy Markets: The Region’s Edge Will Survive — At a Price
  • Analysis
  • Gulf Energy Markets: The Region’s Edge Will Survive — At a Price

    Across the Gulf, views differ widely on how the Iran war can and should end, and what the region will look like once it does. Yet on the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the view is near-unanimous that a repeat is not only possible but likely. That expectation, more than any single incident over the past year, is becoming a major driver of decision-making in industry and policy circles alike.

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    Iran-Taliban ties: Pragmatism over ideology
    Photo by Republic of Tatarstan Press Service/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iran-Taliban ties: Pragmatism over ideology

    Though Tehran continues to engage the government in Kabul in a pragmatic fashion, Iran and the Taliban are not traditional friends or allies; they share an uneasy relationship. There is a sectarian angle to their differences and a long-standing dispute over water resources. Yet Iran has sought to normalize relations due to broader geopolitical considerations, security concerns, and perceived economic opportunities.

    April 11, 2024

    Saied’s emerging economic strategy for Tunisia
    Photo by Tunisian Presidency /Handout /Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Saied’s emerging economic strategy for Tunisia

    Tunisian President Kais Saied appears to be constructing a new economic strategy. While he has previously outlined his priorities with broad strokes, like fighting corruption and defending sovereignty, he has recently begun to add greater detail, adopting a personalized approach that appears to be attempting to bypass the existing corporatist structures.

    March 26, 2024

    The great financing gap: The state of climate funding in MENA
    Photo by FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The great financing gap: The state of climate funding in MENA

    The Middle East and North Africa region is one of the lowest recipients of climate finance compared to other areas of the globe, such as East Asia and the Pacific Islands, despite MENA’s exposure to extreme climate risks. The MENA region’s share of climate financing from the big three global climate funds — the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) — and their sub-funds made up only 6.6% of their cumulative global financing through 2023.

    March 22, 2024

    Israel and China: A time for choosing?
    ETIENNE OLIVEAU/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Israel and China: A time for choosing?

    Over the past two decades, relations between Israel and China expanded significantly. Since then, however, there have been indications that the growth prospects for the bilateral relationship have diminished. China’s stance on the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack and on Israel’s conduct during the ensuing war in Gaza, in particular, has further cast doubt on the future trajectory of the relationship.

    A better development funding model for Lebanon: Prospects, challenges, and applicable lessons
    Photo by PATRICK BAZ/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • A better development funding model for Lebanon: Prospects, challenges, and applicable lessons

    International funders have often called upon recipients to carry out reforms before any funding can be made available or the amount increased. But in many crisis-wracked countries, such as Lebanon, the prospect of reforms may be too distant, with intervention needed immediately. This is why greater emphasis must be placed on risk mitigation measures over which funders can exercise control.

    March 18, 2024

    Rebuilding Gaza: Navigating the politics of infrastructure
    MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Rebuilding Gaza: Navigating the politics of infrastructure

    The scale of rebuilding needed after the Gaza war, in addition to the difficult political questions involved, will require close international coordination as well as innovative, future-informed thinking.

    March 12, 2024

    Egypt’s Economy: Missed Opportunities and Flawed Priorities
  • Commentary
  • Egypt’s Economy: Missed Opportunities and Flawed Priorities

    For the past several decades, successive Egyptian governments have practised the economic equivalent of riding a skateboard without a helmet; risky but manageable in the short run as long as one doesn’t encounter any obstacles. However, the inevitable has happened. Egypt’s economy smashed into not one, but two, major obstacles; a pandemic, which it just managed to stagger away from (World Bank, 2021), followed by the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Africa-to-Europe value chains: How nearshoring can mitigate Europe’s migration crisis and aid energy transition
  • Commentary
  • Africa-to-Europe value chains: How nearshoring can mitigate Europe’s migration crisis and aid energy transition

    Africa-to-Europe value chains in manufacturing and agri-food production can mitigate factors driving current migration patterns by employing Africans in local value-added production and boosting African GDP growth, reorienting Africa-Europe relations towards mutual economic benefit and dignity.

    The implications of Red Sea instability on the global LNG market
    Photo by Dana Smillie/Bloomberg via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The implications of Red Sea instability on the global LNG market

    Well over 30 attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea have been reported since mid-November 2023, although none have targeted crude oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers to date. But that is not to say that global energy flows through this critical maritime chokepoint are invulnerable; any harm that came to hydrocarbon carriers traveling into or out of the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb would have far-reaching consequences for international markets.

    February 7, 2024

    Azerbaijan and COP29: An opportunity or a challenge?
    Photo by Gary Hershorn/Corbis via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Azerbaijan and COP29: An opportunity or a challenge?

    Azerbaijan will host COP29 at the end of this year. Being selected to host the most important international climate event is a major achievement for the South Caucasus country, though the spotlight it brings will come with its own challenges due to Azerbaijan’s poor human rights record and worsening relations with the West.

    February 7, 2024

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