This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Yemen: The Houthis’ Role in the Next Evolution of the Axis of Resistance
The outbreak of the war with Iran demonstrated the strategic value of maritime chokepoints in the Islamic Republic’s confrontation with the United States. But as Tehran’s strategy of using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington seems to be backfiring, Iran is working with the Houthis to strengthen its leverage over another strategic chokepoint: the Bab el-Mandeb. The recent escalation in Yemen should be viewed within this context.
US Regional Foreign Policy: Unforced Diplomatic Errors Risk Accelerating American Retrenchment
As the summer draws to a close, the storyline for the 2026 Iran war remains incomplete and the United States’ broader Middle East policy direction highly uncertain. None of the major issues that have long headlined Washington’s Iran portfolio appear any closer to resolution, and new problems have emerged that did not exist before.
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame?
The war against Iran has entered its third week with no clear endgame—and no clear strategy from Washington.
At one point President Trump appeared to encourage Iranian Kurdish groups to rise up against the regime, before quickly walking it back. Meanwhile, some exiled Kurdish opposition figures say they already have an invasion plan and only need US air cover.
The Kurdish question is once again at the center of regional politics. In this episode, we examine the role of Iranian Kurds in the opposition—and what this moment could mean for their future.
If the Regime Survives: Iran War Raises the Ante for US, Israel
The United States and Israel both hope for the grand prize: the emergence of a new regime in Iran to replace the Islamic Republic. For the US, this would close the chapter on a hostile and at times violent relationship that has endured since 1979. For Israel, this would see the end not only of a regime with a deep ideological commitment against it but also the foe that Israel sees as behind all fronts of the war it has fought since October 7, 2023.
How the US and Israel Can Stave off Strategic Failure in Iran
Despite a dazzling military onslaught, an Iranian regime that faces a threat to its very existence is demonstrating an entirely predictable willingness to stay the course at all costs. As things stand now, the joint US-Israeli war risks ending in military victory but becoming a strategic failure.
Shockwaves Across Asia: The Iran War’s Strategic Fallout
The Israeli-U.S. military strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have done more than ignite a Middle Eastern war. They have sent shockwaves rolling across Asia, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Sea of Japan, exposing the brittle underpinnings of regional energy systems, straining diplomatic balancing acts, and forcing governments to make hard choices they have long deferred.
Nearly two weeks into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to explore the impact of the widening regional conflict on Turkey. On March 9, Ankara announced that NATO air defenses shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkish airspace since the start of the war and stated it would take all necessary defensive measures. Turkey is now caught in the middle of an escalating conflict that could pose risks to the country’s security, economy, and foreign policy. Tol, Taylor, and Czekaj discuss what a prolonged regional conflict could mean for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, his regional political objectives, and Turkey’s relationship with key Middle Eastern neighbors.
Iran’s Insurance Policy: Why the Houthis Have Stayed out of the Fight
Nearly two weeks into the Iran war, one of Tehran’s most capable and disruptive regional allies, Yemen’s Houthi movement, has not entered the fight. The Houthis’ restraint reflects a strategic calculation by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Operation Epic Fury has created a dramatic opportunity in Lebanon that the US cannot afford to miss. Sustained leadership and support for the Lebanese Armed Forces can result in real disarmament, eliminating Hizballah as an Iranian proxy, and dealing Tehran another massive defeat that would further undermine the Iranian regime and help bring about its collapse.
After the Most Intense Day of Strikes on Iran: What Comes Next?
Watch a discussion with MEI Distinguished Military Fellow General Kenneth F. McKenzie (USMC, ret.) and MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka as they seek make sense of the US military strategy and Iran's calculations as the conflict continues to shift and expand.
As the war with Iran consumes regional attention, Gaza is again being pushed aside. That is not just a humanitarian failure. It is a strategic mistake that could squander a rare opening for political transition while allowing Hamas to weaponize abandonment once more.
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