The Ripple Effects of the US-Israel War on Iran for North Africa
North African states feel the consequences of the US-Israel war with Iran less through direct security risks than through economic shocks that affect long-term stability. The region remains highly exposed to disruptions in global food and energy markets, where price spikes can lead to fiscal pressure, inflation, and social unrest.
What vulnerabilities has the Iran crisis exposed in GCC economies?
The economic stress points vary considerably across the Gulf. Assuming a resumption of exports by May, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar still face sharply declining revenues and contracting GDP—as much as 14 percent in Kuwait and Qatar—because of shut ins, time to restart, and lack of alternative delivery routes. After the Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan, Qatar’s economic outlook and time to recovery look much more difficult.
Despite claiming they are poised to attack, the Yemeni Houthis have yet to join Iran and its other proxies in their fight against the United States and Israel. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj speak to MEI Associate Fellow Nadwa Al-Dawsari to unpack why the Houthis continue to stay on the sidelines of the Iran war and what might prompt them to join the fray. They also discuss the Houthis’ evolving role within the Axis of Resistance, what the Yemeni group has learned from its earlier rounds of direct conflict with Israel and the US, as well as whether its actions could precipitate a renewed flareup in Yemen’s civil war.
The relative resilience of GCC countries to the Iran crisis
Gulf states — including their national oil companies and sovereign and related entities — are energy giants. They understand the risks of a prolonged threat from Iran and did not choose this war. They also recognize the risks of their geographic location, should the region endure another bout of instability and dislocation from a fragmented and collapsing neighbor.
Iraq’s oil paralysis: A self-inflicted wound and a gift to Tehran
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil production from Iraq’s south in free fall, Baghdad’s failure to maximize the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline is no longer a policy dispute. It is a national emergency.
Tripartite Gulf Power: The Diverging Geoeconomics of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and the Implications for MENA and the Global Order
While acknowledging the centrality of security tensions and potential conflict in the Gulf, this essay intentionally sets aside a detailed treatment of military and hard-power dynamics, concentrating instead on the geoeconomic logics of capital, infrastructure, energy, and connectivity, through which Gulf states now articulate power in a fragmented world order.
Iran’s Insurance Policy: Why the Houthis Have Stayed out of the Fight
Nearly two weeks into the Iran war, one of Tehran’s most capable and disruptive regional allies, Yemen’s Houthi movement, has not entered the fight. The Houthis’ restraint reflects a strategic calculation by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Turkey caught in the vortex of a widening Iran war
After months of trying to head off a US-Israeli war with Iran, Turkey now finds itself caught in the middle of it — and deeply concerned that a prolonged, regionalized conflict could pose serious security, economic, and political risks.
Lebanon on the Brink: Hizballah, Iran, and the War’s Spillover
Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar to discuss Hizballah’s role in the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the implications for Lebanon. A day after the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran, Tehran’s Lebanese proxy fired missiles at northern Israeli territory. Israel responded swiftly and forcefully, and Lebanon’s government and population now fear the Iranian-backed militia is dragging the country back into war. The conversation explores the broader repercussions of Hizballah’s actions against the backdrop of a widening war in Iran and Lebanon’s quickly evolving political climate. Nassar also outlines recommendations for how Lebanon can move forward as a sovereign and effective state.
After Khamenei: Iran enters its most uncertain transition since 1979
For nearly four decades, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei embodied the Islamic Republic’s certainty: a singular authority who shaped every major decision on war and peace, repression and reform, economics and ideology. His death, in a coordinated US-Israeli strike on his Tehran command compound on February 28, has ripped that certainty away in the most violent fashion imaginable.
As the third and seemingly decisive round of talks in Geneva concluded, the Trump administration had avoided diplomatic deadlock — but only by narrowing negotiations to the nuclear file.
How Iran, China, and Russia Use the Shadow Fleet to Evade US Sanctions
Crude oil legally sanctioned by the United States and its allies today makes up an estimated 18% of global tanker capacity, or 6-7% of total unrefined petroleum flows — shares that have been growing. Increased pressure on Russian exports and US intervention in Venezuela have further constrained Russian flows and temporarily removed Venezuela, the smallest sanctioned producer, from the market. Iranian exports, however, remain largely untouched.
Saudi Arabia has stepped up its efforts to unify and restructure Yemen’s anti-Houthi forces after the rapid expansion and sudden implosion of the United Arab Emirates-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council following Abu Dhabi’s military withdrawal from the country.
The United States is Israel’s closest ally, and its support is a central pillar of Israel’s national security. The US provides Israel access to purchase advanced weapon systems, ammunition and weapon emergency supplies in times of war, intelligence sharing, opportunities for cooperation in defense technology, and crucial diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council and elsewhere. It also provides Israel with regular security aid, to be spent in the United States, currently at an annual rate of $3.8bn (under an MOU that expires in 2028). Since October 2023, the US also offered active military support, in a break from the historical norm. It contributed substantially to Israel’s defense against Iranian ballistic missiles, in conjunction with Arab regional partners, and bombed nuclear sites in Iran in support of Israel’s campaign in the “12 Day War” of June 2025.
