No one truly knows what Donald Trump will ultimately decide to do about Iran in the coming weeks—perhaps even Trump himself. But for a US president who prides himself on his unpredictability, the success of his overall foreign policy is, at best, checkered. While Trump has scored some wins on the world stage in his first year in office, he has also suffered setbacks. From the Ukraine war to his global tariff war, the verdict is not yet out.
Trump’s battle with Iran also falls into this category. Whether there will be an all-out war, a tactical decapitation strike, or another round of negotiations is anyone’s guess. But the US seems poised to do something, despite Trump seemingly walking back threats he made just a few weeks ago when he urged Iranian protesters to “take over your institutions, ” promising that “help was on its way”.
Since then, Trump has expanded the set of options he has on Iran, keeping the door open to diplomacy while also sending more military firepower towards the Middle East, including the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier and several accompanying warships. Trump asked his military advisors for “decisive options,” just as his top Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff hinted earlier this month in Davos, Switzerland, that the US was still seeking some sort of diplomatic pathway with Iran.
Below are several factors that could influence or give clues as to what direction Trump will ultimately take.
معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) هو منظمة تعليمية مستقلة وغير حزبية وغير ربحية. لا يشارك المعهد في أي أنشطة دعوية، وآراء الباحثين فيه تعبر عن آرائهم الشخصية. يرحب المعهد بالتبرعات المالية، لكنه يحتفظ بالسيطرة التحريرية الكاملة على أعماله، ولا تعكس منشوراته سوى آراء المؤلفين. للاطلاع على قائمة المتبرعين للمعهد، يرجى النقر هنا.
