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The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
  • Analysis
  • The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?

    On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.

    The Mecca Alliance Meets the Red Sea – Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Pact Faces Its First Major Test
  • Commentary
  • The Mecca Alliance Meets the Red Sea – Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Pact Faces Its First Major Test

    When Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to a mutual defense pact in August, it was principally seen as a political commitment. The “Mecca alliance,” as it was dubbed, stipulated that an armed attack on one would be treated as an attack on all three, accompanied by deeper military cooperation.

    The Case for a Middle Course in Afghanistan
  • Commentary
  • The Case for a Middle Course in Afghanistan

    I was a teenage Afghan refugee in Pakistan’s tribal areas when the Twin Towers fell. Almost nobody around us understood the politics of what had happened, but we knew that something had changed for good. Afghanistan, which until then had been our private tragedy and our first exile from Taliban rule, had suddenly become the world’s concern, with the United States leading the response.

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    Prospects for the intra-Afghan talks in Doha
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Prospects for the intra-Afghan talks in Doha

    Omar Samad and Marvin Weinbaum join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what to expect from the intra-Afghan talks underway in Doha, the ongoing violence on the ground in Afghanistan, and the challenges facing Afghan security forces as the US continues its troop drawdown.

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    October 6, 2020

    Pakistan's Israel dilemma
  • Analysis
  • Pakistan's Israel dilemma

    On Sept. 13, Bahrain recognized Israel at a ceremony attended by US President Donald Trump at the White House. With the stroke of a pen, Bahrain became the fourth Arab state to have forged official ties with Israel, following in the footsteps of Egypt (1979), Jordan (1994), and most recently, the UAE (Aug. 13, 2020).

    October 6, 2020

    America in Afghanistan
    Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • America in Afghanistan

    In the recently released Showtime documentary “Kingdom of Silence” by Alex Gibney and Lawrence Wright, I made the statement that with hindsight the U.S. may have been better off never having occupied Afghanistan. That comment has brought some questions and responses, so let me be clear about what I mean and why.

    October 5, 2020

    Monday Briefing: Will Russia and Turkey face off over Nagorno-Karabakh?
  • Commentary
  • Monday Briefing: Will Russia and Turkey face off over Nagorno-Karabakh?

    This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Maxim A. Suchkov, Ibrahim Jalal, Eliza Campbell, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum.

    September 28, 2020

    The Taliban holds the upper hand in intra-Afghan talks
    Photo by US Department of State/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • The Taliban holds the upper hand in intra-Afghan talks

    The ongoing intra-Afghan talks confirm, without a doubt, that the Taliban is negotiating from a position of remarkable strength. After being overthrown by the military of the world’s sole superpower two decades ago, the Taliban’s resurgence is a perfect example of what happens when a counterinsurgency campaign fails to eliminate its target’s safe havens. The Doha negotiations have also underlined the ugly reality of the Afghan conflict — that firepower alone cannot crush an insurgency when its narrative has some resonance with the local people.

    September 21, 2020

    An enduring divide: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Durand Line
    Photo by WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • An enduring divide: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Durand Line

    The Durand Line, as the British-Empire-drawn border that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan is known, continues to haunt the region and its leaders. On Sept. 7, Afghanistan’s first vice president, Amrullah Saleh, opened Pandora’s box by saying in an interview that “No Afghan politician of national stature can overlook the issue of Durand Line.”

    September 11, 2020

    Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East
  • Analysis
  • Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East

    In a new briefing book released ahead of the U.S. elections in November, entitled Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East, MEI scholars lay out key issues across the region, highlight the U.S. interests at stake, and provide policy insights and recommendations for the path forward. 

    Hurdles on the road to peace in Afghanistan
    Photo by National Security Council of Afghanistan/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images 
  • Commentary
  • Hurdles on the road to peace in Afghanistan

    The hurdles encountered in kick-starting the intra-Afghan talks seem to be more daunting than anticipated. This has not only delayed a process that was scheduled to begin immediately after the Doha agreement in February, but has also underlined the bumpy road that lies ahead for various stakeholders to reach a consensus on Afghanistan’s national destiny.

    August 26, 2020

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    The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.