The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.
For two decades, US drones hunting terrorists across the mountains of South Asia were the symbol of American military power: precise, lethal, and unmatched. That era is now over. Drones are no longer exquisite tools of counterterrorism and have evolved into something far more common and destabilizing: cheap, expendable, and mass-produced tools of attrition.
Bonus Episode: Stalled Talks and Next Steps for the US and Iran
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a recent MEI Virtual Briefing. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Alan Eyre and Daniel Benaim to discuss the historic talks held in Pakistan last weekend between the United States and Iran. Tehran insists the US failed to gain its trust, while the US made its red lines clear and declared it would blockade Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. What happens next? Eyre and Benaim offer insights into what goes on behind the scenes at such negotiations; identify the core issues at play; explore potential incentives to end the war; analyze the weaponization of energy; as well as assess the role of other regional players in this conflict.
Monday Briefing: The Middle East is the closest it has ever been to an all-out war
After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.
Iran strives to become a pan-sectarian Islamic power
The success of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 marked the first time in modern history that a secular regime in the Middle East was toppled in favor of a theocratic, Islamist order. Over the following decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary objective has been to become a regional hegemon. In pursuit of this goal, Iran’s Shi’a clerical leadership has been willing to adopt a remarkably pragmatic approach, allowing it to often diverge from its religious dogma.
Pakistan’s political scene looks increasingly unsettled and complicated
The deep rift between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and Pakistan’s civil-military establishment shows no sign of weakening but appears to be shifting. The coalition government and its military sponsors, so recently seen as having taken command of the political heights, are now showing signs of panicking as they appear to be losing the initiative and ability to set the narrative.
Russia and China’s differing engagements with the Houthis
Although Russia and China are in regular dialogue with the Houthis, the motivations that undergird the engagements of both countries differ markedly. The Houthis regard both Russia and China as partners against American unilateralism but have a warmer relationship with Moscow.
Unpacking the policy dimension of Netanyahu's Washington visit: A US push for a Gaza deal that came up short
The extensive coverage and analysis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to the United States mostly focused on optics and domestic politics, rather than on policy. Nevertheless, policy issues were very much present throughout the course of the visit, with Biden and his team trying to push for a hostage and cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas.
China’s humanitarian role: Insights from the Syrian refugee crisis
China’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis should be viewed within the broader context of its evolving approach to humanitarian aid and its overall involvement and objectives in the Syrian conflict.
The Limits of Biden’s Middle East Diplomacy: An Assessment of US Policy, April-July 2024
In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.
Why President-elect Pezeshkian’s focus on Arab ties makes sense for an Iran facing monumental socio-economic challenges
The conventional wisdom is that Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is yet another bit of window dressing put up by the “deep state” in Tehran, which effectively calls the shots on the most contentious foreign policy files. But it might just be that Pezeshkian’s sudden emergence as president was orchestrated from the outset as a pretext for the Iranian regime to change course.
The geopolitical implications of Houthi attacks and Israeli retaliation
The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.
Turkey is not “lost,” but it is time for other NATO allies to more strongly reengage
Turkey’s loyalty to the Alliance is frequently questioned, including accusations of fence-sitting, especially when it comes to Russia. To ask, “Who lost Turkey?” is to misread the situation. Turkey is increasingly, albeit carefully, moving away from the Kremlin.
The situation in the Red Sea is not getting better
The current situation is not only intolerable – it is unsustainable. It is time to recognize that the Houthis, with strong and persistent support from Iran, are in a position to hold not only the US but virtually the entire global system hostage.
US President Joe Biden will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Washington this week. The meeting provides an opportunity to double down on considerations of what a “day after” might look like and how best to promote moderate Palestinian voices in the effort to rebuild Gaza.
CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse
On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.
The geopolitical causes of Georgia’s political crisis
Strengthening authoritarian rule in Georgia is not just a reflection of Georgia’s internal politics but also a symptom of the West’s broader disengagement from the wider Black Sea region. This disengagement has facilitated Russian state capture in Georgia, undermining the rule of law and democracy.
