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The Humanitarian Disaster During the Battle for Baghouz
Civilians evacuated from the Islamic State (IS) group's embattled holdout of Baghouz wait for bread and water at a screening area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor, on March 5, 2019. - More than 7,000 people, mostly women and children, have fled the shrinking pocket over the past two days, as US-backed forces press ahead with an offensive to crush holdout jihadists. (Photo by Bulent KILIC / AFP) (Photo credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP via
  • Analysis
  • The Humanitarian Disaster During the Battle for Baghouz

    It is unclear how many civilians were killed in February and March 2019, when the U.S.-led coalition and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pounded ISIS’s last enclave around the town of Baghouz. Presumably, the numbers reached into the thousands. Those who escaped found themselves in the desert, hundreds of kilometers away from lifesaving aid. The reasons for the failure of the humanitarian response were mainly political.

    January 14, 2020

    Safeguarding and celebrating Egypt’s traditional crafts
  • Analysis
  • Safeguarding and celebrating Egypt’s traditional crafts

    Accomplished craftspeople are a dying breed in Cairo, but Jameel House of Traditional Arts and Atelier Cairo are working to change that by training a new generation of artisans in traditional media like ceramics, wood, brass, glass, and gypsum work (stucco), helping to replenish the stock of skilled Egyptian craftspeople and keeping rare and beautiful art forms alive.

    January 14, 2020

    The killing of Qassem Soleimani: Was there a better way?
     A file photo dated September 18, 2016 shows Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani during Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's meeting with Revolutionary Guards, in Tehran, Iran.
  • Analysis
  • The killing of Qassem Soleimani: Was there a better way?

    In the early hours of Jan. 3, 2020, a U.S. Military MQ-9 drone fired multiple air-to-ground missiles and killed the commander of the elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – Quds Force, Major General Qassem Soleimani. The targeted killing of Soleimani was carried out as he left the Baghdad International Airport under overt military authorities. Given that the strike was carried out under this authority, it was publicized globally shortly after it was completed. There were other options available to target Soleimani, however.

    Oman’s new era
    Vice President of Turkey Fuat Oktay offers his condolences to Oman's new Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said over the death of longtime ruler Qaboos bin Said al Said at the Al Alam Palace in Muscat, Oman on January 12, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • Oman’s new era

    The announcement of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said’s passing on Jan. 10 marked the end of an era. Now that the Arab world lost its longest-serving leader, none of the Gulf states has a ruler that was on the throne when the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established in 1981. Most Omanis have never known another leader and this transition period, marked by three days of mourning, is an emotional time for those in the sultanate.

    January 13, 2020

    Iran’s lit fuse does not necessarily favor the US
    A woman attending a candlelight vigil, in memory of the victims of Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737, talks to a policeman following the gathering in front of the Amirkabir University in the Iranian capital Tehran on January 11, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s lit fuse does not necessarily favor the US

    In the aftermath of the latest round of U.S. and Iranian brinksmanship, hawks and liberals are interpreting developments as validating their positions. Hawks are claiming victory for “maximum pressure,” arguing how the U.S. strike against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani frightened the now weakened ruling clerics into submission. Liberals argue that Iran took the high road, demonstrating a willingness to respond to incentives and negotiate.

    January 13, 2020

    China’s growing role in the Middle East
    China's President Xi Jinping (R) welcomes Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the Second Belt and Road Forum.
  • Analysis
  • China’s growing role in the Middle East

    While the world is engaged in an ongoing discussion about the ramifications of the trade war between Washington, DC and Beijing, the economies of the Middle East are shifting away from their longstanding ties with the U.S. toward economically powerful China. This may have long-term implications for economic and political dynamics in the region.

    January 9, 2020

    Jihadism in South Asia: A militant landscape in flux
    An aerial view taken on November 1, 2019, shows the site where the Islamic State group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was reportedly killed according to US president Donald Trump, in a daring nighttime raid by US special forces near the small village of Barisha in northwestern Syria.
  • Analysis
  • Jihadism in South Asia: A militant landscape in flux

    Over the past five years, the focus of U.S. counterterrorism strategists has remained on the Middle East, especially after the emergence of ISIS in 2014, while Islamist terrorist organizations operating in South Asia have been considered a secondary threat. However, the fact remains that South Asia is home to more Islamist terrorist organizations than any other region of the world. Al-Qaeda was born there, in Afghanistan, and ISIS has roots in the region. But at the turn of the decade both global jihadist groups are now facing major challenges and the critical question is whether they will manage to survive this period of crisis amid a severe leadership vacuum following the death of ISIS’s supreme leader and caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the killing of al-Qaeda heir apparent Hamza bin Laden. 

    January 8, 2020

    Georgia: European aspirations, Middle Eastern realities
    Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Georgia's Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia (L) hold a joint press conference at the Presidential Complex in Ankara on October 31, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Georgia: European aspirations, Middle Eastern realities

    Since regaining its independence nearly three decades ago, European aspirations have been a central part of Georgia’s political agenda and identity. But the reality is more complicated and Georgia is, in a meaningful sense, part of both greater Europe and the greater Middle East.

    January 7, 2020

    The Military-Security Dimension of Israel-Southeast Asia Relations
  • Analysis
  • The Military-Security Dimension of Israel-Southeast Asia Relations

    Over the past two decades, Israel has developed robust bilateral relationships with China, India, and Singapore. Israel has also succeeded in forging ties with Japan and South Korea. More recently, Israel has devoted considerable attention to strengthening its relations with Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar. Military-security cooperation in the form of arms trade as well as technology transfer and licensed production has emerged as an important dimension of Israel’s relations with Southeast Asian countries.

    January 7, 2020

    The future of the UK’s relationship with the Maghreb
    Algerian protesters wave national flags during an anti-government demonstration in the capital Algiers, on December 20, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • The future of the UK’s relationship with the Maghreb

    The UK’s impending exit from the EU will present a new chapter for British interests in and posture toward the region. If the UK is to find a trade-off for loss of diplomatic and economic heft, it will need to re-prioritize its engagement efforts. Policy continuity toward Morocco and Tunisia appears inevitable; Algeria, in contrast, promises great opportunity for an evolving relationship.

    January 6, 2020

    Idlib could define Syria’s future
    Syrian families, who have been forced to displace despite attacks carried out by Assad regime and Russia, sit on soil field despite the cold weather during winter season at Harbanush village in Idlib, Syria on December 28, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Idlib could define Syria’s future

    The consequences of what happens in Idlib could come to define the future of Syria — a country already destined for many more years of instability and suffering.

    How we planted the seeds of war with Iran: Decisions made in Washington brought us to this fateful moment
  • Analysis
  • How we planted the seeds of war with Iran: Decisions made in Washington brought us to this fateful moment

    For almost 40 years, American national security officials have looked down the barrel of the gun of war with Iran. I sat in rooms in the White House and Pentagon several times as small groups of senior officials considered what such a war would look like, how it would end, and whether we would be better off for having fought it.

    The answer was always the same: It would be highly destructive in several nations, it would end in a stalemate with the Iranian regime in place, and nothing positive would have been accomplished.

    January 5, 2020

    Refugees Adrift? Responses to Crises in the MENA and Asia
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Refugees Adrift? Responses to Crises in the MENA and Asia

    This essay series explores the human costs and policy challenges associated with the displacement crises in the Middle East and Asia.

    In 2014 the UNHCR reported that the number of people forced to flee their homes had exceeded 50 million for the first time since World War Two, and that the exponential increase in the number of those forcibly displaced had already stretched aid organisations and host countries nearly to the breaking point. 

    January 1, 2020

    Civil Society and Political Transitions in the MENA Region and Southeast Asia
    Middle East Institute
  • Analysis
  • Civil Society and Political Transitions in the MENA Region and Southeast Asia

    The MENA and Southeast Asia regions have undergone and continue to undergo massive political transitions.  Differences in the process and outcomes of their transitions can be viewed through the lens of a “civil society infrastructure” and the qualitative differences in both these regions. This essay series engages a variety of issues regarding the roles and impact of civil society organizations (CSOs) in these two regions during the transition and pre-transition periods as well as in instances where the political transition is completed.

    January 1, 2020