التحليل

As international companies leave Iran under U.S. pressure, the Iranian government is scrambling to salvage as much foreign investment as possible. The top leadership in Tehran believes the solution is to engage with Russia, China, and the “east” to replace the West’s hesitant commitment to the Iranian market. But this eastward approach is a pipe dream, and there is plenty of history to prove it.

Iran’s Russian desires

Muqtada al-Sadr will maintain close relations with Iran and wants the United States to withdraw all its troops from Iraq and the Middle East, a top aide to the Iraqi cleric was quoted as saying in an 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Oman in April 2017 injected some much-needed vitality into the bilateral relationship. Since then, India-Oman cooperation has intensified, particularly in the defense and security spheres.

Over the past 25 years, the world has seen a rise in the frequency of natural disasters in rich and poor countries alike. Today, there are more people at risk from natural hazards than ever, with those in developing countries particularly at risk. This essay series explores measures that have been taken, and could be taken, in order to improve responses to the threat or occurrence of natural disasters in the MENA and Indo-Pacific regions.

China is currently deploying a policy of industrial transfer in the Middle East. This is an external trade and industry policy, a transplanting of domestic economic institutions in external geographies. The financing of this China geo-industrial policy will reshape the Central Asia-Middle East-Africa trade and production nexus in the coming decade.

It is a travesty that in the 21st century the construction of a mega-hydropower-generation project, the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been underway for over seven years without an independent, comprehensive transboundary Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) conducted first.

Are the principles of tolerance and pluralism that underpin progressive visions of political community under threat? In this essay, the authors discuss the rising tide of Islamophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany, East Asia, and elsewhere.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, Jean-François Seznec, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Europe’s scramble to salvage the Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response to Russia’s call for all foreign forces to leave Syria, a meeting by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia to discuss the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran, the arrest of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia, new political tensions in Pakistan, a push in the U.S.

Opinions about the consequences of the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal began flying around as soon as President Donald Trump announced the exit.

Many of the key points that pundits have made about Washington turning its back on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have dealt with oil. That’s because the U.S. is likely to sanction Iranian oil exports again, as it did during the Obama administration.

Here are several short-term and long-term consequences of the U.S. about-face on the Iran deal:

Short-term consequences

Firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s surprising lead in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections has raised alarm in Tehran. The Iranian press expressed the concern that Sadr would seek to undercut the Islamic Republic’s influence in Iraq by marginalizing Iran’s allies and allowing regional Sunni countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to make inroads into Iraqi politics and economy at the expense of Tehran’s interests.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry today rejected a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin that all foreign troops should leave Syria after intra-Syrian peace process begins, the Iranian media reported. No one can force Iran to do anything. Iran is an independent country, which determines its own policies. “Iran’s presence is based on the Syrian government’s invitation, and its objective is to fight terrorism and defend Syria’s territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said at a press briefing in Tehran.

My first in-depth conversation on nonviolence with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal came in the months before the Arab Spring uprisings, when the latter was still chairman of Hamas’s politburo.

Sitting in his Damascus office, Meshaal underscored that Hamas was open to any strategy that would advance Palestinian self-determination, including nonviolence—“if it would work.”

Much has been written about the Sino-Israeli relationship, mainly regarding political and economic ties. However, the security dimension of the relationship has received comparatively less attention. This article discusses Sino-Israeli security relations in an effort to shed light on their roots, substance and prospects despite Israel’s commitment to its relations with the United States.

Two major events in the past few weeks have come into play regarding the future of a de-escalation zone in southern Syria from a Jordanian perspective. The first was the Western coalition’s missile strike on April 13 against Syrian regime positions in retaliation for an alleged chemical attack in the besieged Eastern Ghouta that took place on April 7.

The secretary-general of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-supported Iraqi militia group, has threatened that its forces will fight Israel to seize Jerusalem, according to Shafaaq, an Arab outlet.