التحليل

To identify pathways to deal with demands for economic reform and volatility in resource revenue in Iraq, in November 2021 the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Iraq Policy Group (IPG) convened a high-level workshop on the side-lines of the American University of Kurdistan’s annual Middle East Peace and Security Forum. This report provides the insights and analyses of a select group of participants, and forms part of a series of forthcoming Iraq- and Gulf-focused reports and initiatives that MEI and IPG will be convening.

Since the launch of Vision 2030 six years ago, Saudi Arabia has made considerable progress in reducing the labor-cost gap between national and foreign workers in the private sector. While the total unemployment rate has declined recently among nationals, it remains high at 11%. Drawing on evidence from Bahrain’s experience with labor market reform, this can be significantly reduced through policies designed to bridge the cost gap between citizens and foreign labor in the private sector.

With its recent deepwater exploration success in the Black Sea and prominent geographic location for interregional hydrocarbon pipelines, Turkey can play a material role in shaping the geopolitical landscape today, especially in the natural gas sector. The country will face a strategic conundrum, whether to utilize newly discovered gas resources entirely for domestic needs and thereby reduce gas imports that come with political baggage as well as foreign currency expenditures, or export gas to capture foreign revenue that Ankara desperately needs.

For Iraqis, two key events last week will shape the rest of this year, but hopefully not many more to come. First, on June 8 the divided parliament voted in surprising harmony to pass the so-called “Food Security and Development Bill,” a controversial piece of legislation with a $17 billion price tag. Second, this was followed, almost overnight on June 9, by a call from firebrand populist Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to lawmakers loyal to his movement to “prepare their resignations.” On June 12, the 73 MPs of the Sadrist Movement tendered their resignations, and Iraq leapt even deeper into the void of political uncertainty.

The June 3 address by Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah, to the people of Iran was bad news for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In his live televised speech, Reza Pahlavi made several accusations against the current leadership of Iran, and judging from their reaction, it has put Iranian officials on edge.

In response to water shortages exacerbated by population growth and climate change, an increasing number of countries have invested in weather modification technologies over the past decade, including precipitation enhancement, or cloud seeding. The UAE has been a leader in exploring this technology within the arid Gulf region, launching a cloud seeding program in 2002.

Water is slowly emerging as yet another potential cause for dispute between Ankara and Tehran. As of late, the two neighboring states have been at loggerheads over a number of issues, including Syria and Iraq, where they have opposing interests. After years of quiet diplomatic juggling, the issue of transboundary water management is gradually taking center stage in the two countries’ relations, a development that could, in the medium run, have serious repercussions for regional security.

After 100 days of war in Ukraine on Europe’s eastern flank, a critical new front has opened on Europe’s southern flank with the food crisis in Africa. As Europe faces a two-front, geo-economic war of attrition with Russia, Morocco’s plan to increase its fertilizer output by nearly 70% changes the strategic equation by countering Moscow’s ability to weaponize the food-energy nexus. In so doing, Morocco has demonstrated its increasing importance as a geopolitical partner for Europe and the United States in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Beyond short-term austerity measures, Pakistan’s current federal and provincial governments need to push forward essential reforms — including in agriculture, energy, and local governance — that are key to ensuring the country’s political and economic stability and long-term growth prospects.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus has been unable to find a model for regional cooperation or form regional organizations. The relative calm that followed the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, especially after the signing of the November 2020 cease-fire agreement, renewed hopes that this might change. Significant challenges to regional cooperation remain, however, and Russia’s war with Ukraine has only complicated matters further.

On June 6 Israel’s coalition government lost an important vote, in which more than half of the Knesset members on both sides voted against their own most fundamental beliefs in a desperate effort to either bring down the coalition or to save it. The substance of the legislation was barely more than a pretext, but the opposition smelled blood and was willing to do virtually anything to regain power.

On May 23, 2022, Metropol tower, a 10-story commercial building in the city of Abadan in Iran’s oil-rich southwestern Khuzestan Province, collapsed, killing at least 41 people and trapping dozens more beneath the rubble. For an outside observer, this might seem like a tragic but random accident that could have happened anywhere. In reality, it is a stark illustration of a country mired in corruption and mismanagement.

The considerable financial shortfall experienced by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) over the past couple of years has measurably affected its morale, readiness, and operational capacity. There couldn’t be a worse time for the LAF to potentially fall apart. A series of monumental challenges await Lebanon now that the parliamentary elections are over, all of which demand a modicum of stability that only the LAF can provide.

Partnering is a practical necessity for both countries but need not come at the cost of abandoning core values. The U.S. continues to exercise significant leverage and its own interests are better served globally by demonstrating credibility in what it stands for and reliability in its commitments. The U.S.-Saudi relationship has ample room to bend before it risks breaking.

On May 17, 2022, Iran inaugurated a drone factory in neighboring Tajikistan, its first drone production facility abroad. With this factory, Iran intends to reinforce bilateral relations and reduce recent tensions with Tajikistan, address shared security concerns on the Afghan border, boost profits in a growing export market, and complicate Israeli efforts to further sabotage its drone program.