Research & Commentary Results

Six months since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and subsequent outbreak of war in Gaza, the deadly and devastating conflict looks no closer to concluding. Is it still possible to achieve a sustainable cessation of hostilities and restart the conflict-resolution process? To get there, what are the incentives and disincentives that could be constructed for the two main combatants, Israel and Hamas?

Public opinion polls indicate that a plurality of Israelis have lost faith in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and support early elections. Recently, this trend has been coupled with renewed demonstrations against the government and maneuvers by key politicians, indicating that the chances Israelis will go to the polls during 2024 are on the rise.

On March 5-7, 2024, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) hosted the annual Arab Forum for Sustainable Development (AFSD). The inclusion of a special session on “Collaborative Futures: Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in a World of Crisis” is another example of the growing attention to foresight-driven analysis and decision-making among leaders in the Arab world.

The Middle East and North Africa region is one of the lowest recipients of climate finance compared to other areas of the globe, such as East Asia and the Pacific Islands, despite MENA’s exposure to extreme climate risks. The MENA region’s share of climate financing from the big three global climate funds — the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) — and their sub-funds made up only 6.6% of their cumulative global financing through 2023.

Over the past two decades, relations between Israel and China expanded significantly. Since then, however, there have been indications that the growth prospects for the bilateral relationship have diminished. China’s stance on the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack and on Israel’s conduct during the ensuing war in Gaza, in particular, has further cast doubt on the future trajectory of the relationship.

International funders have often called upon recipients to carry out reforms before any funding can be made available or the amount increased. But in many crisis-wracked countries, such as Lebanon, the prospect of reforms may be too distant, with intervention needed immediately. This is why greater emphasis must be placed on risk mitigation measures over which funders can exercise control.

The scale of rebuilding needed after the Gaza war, in addition to the difficult political questions involved, will require close international coordination as well as innovative, future-informed thinking.

MEI’s US-Lebanon Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar and Emile Hokayem – Director of Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – discuss the changing and uncertain rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel, and the potential for war between the two following Oct. 7. 

المزيد من الحلقات

With Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of war, there have been ongoing diplomatic attempts to defuse tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border. Among the long-standing issues between the two countries are disagreements over their shared boundary. Asher Kaufman takes a closer look at these territorial disputes and how they came about, with a particular focus on the village of Ghajar at the center of the tension.

In mid-January, with the war in Gaza continuing to rage on, Iran launched a series of surprise missile attacks on its immediate neighbors Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan over two days. Taken together, these attacks illustrate that the Islamic Republic puts regime survival above national interest in its foreign policy calculations, which undermines its efforts to engender solidarity and good relations with other Muslim-majority states in the region.

If the Knesset expels lawmaker Ofer Cassif, it will represent the national legislature’s first use of the Suspension Law and signal a sharp curtailing of legal space for non-Zionist players in Israeli politics.

الأسابيع المقبلة حاسمة بالنسبة لإسرائيل ولبنان، ومن المرجح أن تحدد ما إذا كان من الممكن تجنب مواجهة أوسع بين إسرائيل وحزب الله دبلوماسياً أم أن ذلك أمر لا مفر منه. وقد دعا المسؤولون الإسرائيليون لبنان والعالم إلى التوصل إلى حل؛ لكن في الواقع، تتجه أنظار إسرائيل إلى واشنطن العاصمة.

Nine nations, including terrorist groups that are de facto governments, have attacked other countries in the region over the course of about two weeks. Numerous commentators have drawn the conclusion that a regional war is already underway or soon will be.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

In navigating the thickening fog of war, ongoing US-led mediation must actively take two critical steps to pull Lebanon and Israel back from the brink and avoid a direct US-Iran confrontation: secure credible guarantees on compliance and endorse local efforts to elect an independent president.