Research & Commentary Results

Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.

Iran, Russia and Turkey agreed earlier today to establish a trilateral mechanism to enforce the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria. After a two-day meeting in Kazakhstan sponsored by Moscow, the trio issued a joint statement that called for “a political process based on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution 2254” to end the Syrian civil war.

In an interview with an Arab television station, the former Iranian foreign minister and the present head

A senior Iraqi official has said that the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) will take part in the “liberation” of western Mosul. “The popular mobilization forces in Nineveh Province will participate in the liberation operation of Tal Afar,” Iraqi National Security Advisor Falih al-Fayyad said in an interview with Iranian state-run Al-Alam News Network published on January 23.

Earlier today, Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to jointly monitor the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria and pledged to work for a political solution to end the Syrian civil war. But while Moscow and Ankara are trying to broaden the scope of future discussions on Syria, Tehran continues to oppose the inclusion of the United States and regional Sunni states in the process.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.

Afghan officials say Iran has recently sent a delegation to meet with Taliban commanders in the restive province of Helmand. On January 23, Hayatullah Hayat, the governor of Helmand, told Afghanistan’s 1TV channel that the National Directorate of Security was probing allegations that the Iranian team also delivered weapons to the Taliban militants in Helmand’s Garmsir District.

On January 22, the Iranian Judiciary confirmed that a Revolutionary Court in Tehran had upheld a five-year jail term for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian charity worker incarcerated in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison. Judiciary Spokesman Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i did not make public the specific charges against her, but called her a “security convict.”

There is still plenty of anger among the Iranian population about the January 19 fire and collapse of a historic high-rise building in downtown Tehran. The number of casualties is still unknown as the emergency services are still finding bodies under the rubble.

On January 23, a top Iranian military official called on the ground forces of the country’s regular army to boost their combat readiness a

Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s atomic agency, warned President Donald Trump that if he tears the 2015 nuclear agreement apart Iran will “increase its nuclear activities at a more advanced level.”  Salehi’s remarks were in reaction to Trump’s phone conversation with the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.

On January 23, Washington quickly rejected news that US forces had carried out joint air attacks with Russia against Islamic State targets in Syria.

The reaction in Tehran to Trump arriving in the White House has been cautious, but composed. The two dominant factions inside the Iranian regime, the moderates and the hardliners, appear to agree on the question of Iran’s posture toward the Trump presidency. Early signs of this emerging consensus points to an Iran that will have to be less provocative in its actions in the Middle East in order to avoid American reprisals. Even the most hawkish voices in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps have warned about “sensitive days ahead between Iran and American generals.”

A senior Iraqi official has said that Baghdad will welcome Iran’s controversial pick to be its next ambassador to Iraq. Earlier this month, the Iranian media reported that Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi, a senior advisor to Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani, will be Iran’s next envoy to Iraq. The news drew criticism from Saudi officials.

Iran will build a mobile phone network in Syria under an agreement signed by the two countries’ ministries of information and communications technology, Iranian media reports.