Research & Commentary Results

On Feb. 25, 2024, Qatar announced plans to increase its LNG production capacity by a further 16 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2029-30, bringing the total to 142 mtpa. This would be the third such large-scale expansion of its LNG production within the next six years, but there’s one wrinkle: These new production volumes are set to come online at a time of significant oversupply in the LNG market. What accounts for Qatar’s decision?

On this week’s episode, Jehanne Henry, Mirette Mabrouk, and MEI Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discuss Sudan’s civil war and its regional impact. The conflict began on April 15th, 2023, when fighting broke out in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as “Hemedti”). More than a year on, the fighting continues to rage and there seems to be no end in sight to the conflict.

المزيد من الحلقات

في الأشهر الأخيرة، أصبحت أوضاع إسرائيل في البحر الأحمر أكثر صعوبة على الصعيد الأمني والاقتصادي والدبلوماسي. لكن البلاد في وضع أفضل لمواجهة هذه التحديات والتهديدات من خلال الاستفادة من الشراكات الإقليمية الاستراتيجية التي طورتها على مدى السنوات القليلة الماضية.

After Hamas’s unprecedented attack against Israel on Oct. 7, the siren song of Saudi-Israeli normalization risks wrecking the US-Saudi relationship against the rocks of stubborn geopolitical realities. An interim less-for-less approach in US-Saudi negotiations that doesn’t immediately require Senate approval nor is beholden to a much less certain Israeli-Palestinian peace process could set the stage for an even more consequential “mega deal” down the line.

Since April 15, 2023, the Sudanese people have borne the brunt of the country’s civil war. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, more than 9 million people have been internally displaced over the past year, and another 1.7 million have been forced to flee to neighboring states. Peace remains a distant prospect, as a result of the failure of diplomatic efforts to date to convince both Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, to end the conflict through a political settlement.

March 26, 2024, marked the 45th anniversary of the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. Over the years, this bilateral settlement has proven its stability and resilience, despite a series of crucial challenges. Yet the Begin-Sadat legacy, and the benefits it brings, is now in jeopardy.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

شهد شهر أبريل سلسلة من التصعيدات غير المسبوقة في الصراع الإيراني-الإسرائيلي الذي طال أمده، حيث شن كلا البلدين هجمات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة على أراضي بعضهما البعض لأول مرة في التاريخ.

في أعقاب هذه الضربات، ماذا سيكون تأثيرها على الأمن الإقليمي والبيئة السياسية في المستقبل، وما هو المطلوب لتثبيت قواعد اللعبة الجديدة، وكيف يمكن للدبلوماسية الأمريكية أن تساعد في تسهيل هذه العملية؟ طلب معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) من خبرائه إبداء آرائهم في هذا الشأن.

Yemen’s eastern governorate of Hadramawt has long had a distinct regional identity and recent steps, including the signing of a Hadrami Honor Charter and the formation of the Hadramawt National Council (HNC), have underscored Hadramis’ aspirations for greater empowerment and autonomy at a time of growing competition and contestation, both locally and regionally.

A version of this article was originally published on the Substack “Thinking Middle East.”

This week marks one year of Sudan’s brutal civil war, when the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) started battling in the capital city of Khartoum. Far from silencing their guns, the two sides continue to fight fiercely to devastating effect; and with scant global attention or outcry, the Sudanese war has quickly become the world’s worst forgotten conflict.

Less than 10 years after seizing power in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to evolve — and so do the threats emanating from it. After several years of negotiations, it now seems likely that the Houthis and Saudis will reach a peace agreement, and it is worth considering how such a deal could change the group’s trajectory. This report examines a number of possible futures that could develop in Yemen over the next 1-2 years based on shifting capabilities, interests, and alliances.

Six months since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and subsequent outbreak of war in Gaza, the deadly and devastating conflict looks no closer to concluding. Is it still possible to achieve a sustainable cessation of hostilities and restart the conflict-resolution process? To get there, what are the incentives and disincentives that could be constructed for the two main combatants, Israel and Hamas?

On March 5-7, 2024, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) hosted the annual Arab Forum for Sustainable Development (AFSD). The inclusion of a special session on “Collaborative Futures: Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in a World of Crisis” is another example of the growing attention to foresight-driven analysis and decision-making among leaders in the Arab world.

في 12 مارس، فرضت وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية عقوبات على أربعة أشخاص لدعمهم كتائب العشتار المرتبطة بإيران في البحرين. قد يوحي هذا الإعلان الأمريكي بأن العلاقات الإيرانية-البحرينية على وشك الانهيار. لكن في الواقع، من غير المرجح أن يحدث ذلك - على الأقل طالما استمرت الهدنة الإيرانية-السعودية.