Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
“ستتزايد المواجهات في الأسابيع والأشهر المُقبلة عندما تضطر الحكومة إلى رفع الدعم، أو تقنينه عن سلع أساسية مثل الوقود”
Saturday marks the 100th day since Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri secured a razor-thin majority nomination to form a new cabinet — his fourth in 11 years. In October 2019, street protests had forced his “national unity” government to resign. His comeback a year later was a cause for disillusionment among protesters and a signal that politics as usual, in its collusive and inefficient nature, was there to stay. The absurdity of the Lebanese debacle lies in how easy and acceptable it was — and still is — for the established political class to shy away from crucial and courageous decisions when the country needed them most.
After more than a millennium, the Maronites of Lebanon are still here — along with all their contradictions
فرضت الحكومة اللبنانية حالة إغلاق صارمة عقب تسجيل أكبر حصيلة إصابات يومية الأسبوع الماضي منذ أن بدأت الجائحة. وتحصد الحكومة اللبنانية الآن ما زرعته بعدما أرخت القيود الصحية العامة خلال فترة العطلات.
Contents:
Paul Salem
President
Our only shot at helping Lebanon rebuild itself is its civil society.
From Israel/Palestine and Lebanon to Iran and Afghanistan, there are a number of areas where the Trump administration may make policy moves before leaving office on Jan. 20. Experts from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on what to watch out for over the next seven weeks.
It’s difficult to look at the Middle East and consider its future optimistically. Much of the analysis of the region centers on crisis and collapse. There is plenty of both, fueled by wars and civil conflicts, poverty, extremism, and more. Given the human toll, focusing on all this is natural. It is also necessary if solutions to deeply rooted problems are ever to be developed, leading to a better future.A related risk is becoming blinded to “weak signals” — early indicators of what could become features of potential alternative futures. Weak signals are developments that are emerging outside the dominant norms and trends of today. In the Middle East, probably the most dominant norm is the inability of governments throughout the region to provide security and prosperity for their citizens. The COVID-19 pandemic is making this even more apparent, and markedly worse. It is not just the obvious failed states — as Steven Cook recently observed, “sometimes state failure is a more chronic condition.” But in the midst of this — and fueled by it — there is evidence of activities at the local level to create what is missing. Could these be signals of a future different than the one it is so easy to expect for the region?
Despite fresh comments from Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah that Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. elections would not dramatically alter America’s pro-Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East, Hezbollah appears largely optimistic of its future under the new administration. The Party of God seems wary of the next few months, however, until President Donald Trump leaves the White House in January. While Hezbollah will certainly benefit from a reboot in diplomatic relations between the U.S and Iran, which could translate into much-needed liquidity for the organization and a strengthening of its internal position, it still faces numerous domestic challenges that money alone cannot solve.
Lebanon has a coastline of 120 nautical miles (NM) along the eastern Mediterranean and an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that encompasses an area of 5000 square nautical miles (SNM). While this wide expanse presents many opportunities, it also represents a pressing security challenge for the Lebanese Navy and the region in general.
A special briefing on Lebanon one year after the October uprising, featuring Anthony Elghossain, Randa Slim, Alia Moubayed, and Joseph Haboush.
I expected that coming back to my homeland would be heart-wrenching. As I stood amid Beirut’s devastation, I watched shell-shocked citizens sweep up the remains of their homes and businesses. The cataclysm of the August 4 blast that destroyed the port, took or ruined the lives of multitudes and laid waste to much of the city, coincided almost exactly with the 100th anniversary of modern Lebanon’s founding in 1920. I wondered if history was now conspiring to bury Lebanon, or if there was still a path forward beyond survival, towards revival and renewal.
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Robert S. Ford, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Dr. Marwa Maziad, and Marvin G. Weinbaum.
Patrick Baz, Kristine Khouri, and Emilie Madi join guest host Lyne Sneige to discuss the impact of the August 4 Beirut Port explosion on Lebanon’s artistic community; how museums and galleries are working to preserve cultural heritage; and how photojournalists recorded this tragic moment in Lebanon’s history. They are among the contributors and co-sponsors of “Lebanon Then and Now: Photography from 2006 to 2020,” an interactive virtual exhibit hosted by the MEI Art Gallery through September 30.