Dispatches from Sharm el-Sheikh: Reviewing COP27 from the MENA perspective
Participating in COP27 provided a unique opportunity to view the proceedings firsthand and evaluate the effectiveness of the meeting in advancing critical climate priorities that can alter the alarming trajectory of future climate change.
In Turkish-Russian relations, the Ukraine grain deal is not the point
The Ukraine grain export deal, which Turkey helped mediate over the summer, was saved last week to much fanfare; but the central unaddressed issue remains lifting Russia’s illegal blockade of Ukrainian ports, so Ukraine can freely trade with the world.
As liquidity problems worsen, Turkey turns to capital controls and informal FX flows
The Turkish economy’s foreign exchange liquidity problem is getting worse. The current account balance has been in the red this year with a monthly deficit of around $5 billion. The government has so far managed to avoid a repeat of the December 2021 currency shock by restricting capital mobility, further tightening regulations in October 2022.
The SCO Summit in Samarkand: Reviving Iran and Uzbekistan relations on an oil and transit axis
The 22nd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in the Uzbekistani city of Samarkand this past September turned out to be a boon for Iran’s regional policy. Not only was the Islamic Republic extended a roadmap to join the grouping, but the meeting also offered a convenient opportunity to revive and strengthen ties with Uzbekistan.
Egyptian “national dialogue” will kick off amid difficult domestic situation
The “national dialogue” that Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi called for more than five months ago has nearly concluded its lengthy preparatory stage, though the official launch has repeatedly been pushed back. It will be a rare chance for opposition parties to present alternative policies to those of the president. But whether the dialogue marks a genuine change in the regime’s authoritarian policies remains to be seen.
As protesters’ slogans and chants have made clear, the current protests are definitely not about the economy, but about opposition to the regime more broadly and its political and social oppression. Yet Iran’s economic problems have created an atmosphere that encouraged and fueled protesters’ anger and have done nothing to help the regime.
Amid Lebanon’s perfect storm of crises, water demands attention
Lebanese crises have repeatedly made international news since October 2019, when the country witnessed the start of a popular revolution against a stagnant and corrupt political elite. Much less discussed but no less critical is the issue of water. The problem has been slumbering for years but has recently come to light along with other failings of the Lebanese government.
Over the past decade, Turkey has been on a steadily downward economic trajectory. Throughout this long period of turmoil the government has pursued a range of different economic policies, most of which were inconsistent with one another. The transition to a presidential system under Erdoğan has had a disastrous impact on Turkey’s economic institutions and administration. This paper explores the impact of the presidential system on the Turkish economy, the country’s economic outlook, and potential solutions to the current crisis, as well as the opposition’s role and ability to implement them, with an eye to the June 2023 elections.
Under current, highly unpredictable market conditions, it is unreasonable for OPEC to make sharp movements to saturate the oil market or withdraw a significant number of barrels from it to meet divergent Western interests of lowering prices and punishing Russia.
Catastrophic floods: Understanding the gravity of Pakistan’s health and food crises
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently warned that his country needs “an infinite amount of funding” to support flood relief efforts. Torrential rains and heavy flooding have killed more than 1,550 people and displaced millions. Compounding the challenge are Pakistan’s intensifying food and health crises, as flood-borne diseases surge and nearly two-thirds of the country’s food basket has been destroyed.
Technology represents one potentially fruitful area where the I2U2 member states — Israel, India, the U.S. and the UAE — could cooperate together, expand their format to include more countries, deliver tangible results, and avoid agitating other global and regional powers.
Morocco’s green mobility revolution: The geo-economic factors driving its rise as an electric vehicle manufacturing hub
Rabat’s recent announcement that it would soon sign an agreement for the construction of a “gigafactory” to make electric vehicle (EV) batteries has placed Morocco in pole position to become a green mobility leader in the Middle East and North Africa.
