This Opinion first appeared in Frontline’s “Tehran Bureau” on April 3, 2012.
The Russian government, like its counterparts in the West, the Middle East, and elsewhere, was caught off guard by the outburst of Arab uprisings beginning in January 2011 that swept away long-ruling authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and (it appears) Yemen, and have threatened to topple those in Bahrain and Syria. The response of the Russian government to these events has, like that of Western governments, often been confused and inconsistent. Just as Western governments have done, Moscow has sought to protect its interests in the region.
Let us assume that nobody will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, at least for quite a while. There is no Iranian nuclear test in the offing. Until now, the inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have uncovered no diversion of declared stocks of uranium for use in a nuclear explosive device. Of course, clandestine activities could always take place in some remote stretch of the vast Iranian territory, unknown to the inspectors of the Vienna Agency.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described upcoming talks with Iran over its nuclear program as "the last chance to resolve the crisis." Yet as the final hour approaches for an opportunity to avert a military attack, there are few apparent signs Iran will make compromises. Recent parliamentary elections have only strengthened the power of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardliners in his inner circle who aspire to make the Islamic republic a regional superpower.
MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
The total number of Bahraini citizens is reported to be about 570,000 nationals, less than half of a total population of over 1.2 million.[1] Nevertheless, this very small number makes up an amazingly complex society comprised of groups and subgroups with different interests and agendas. A short unpacking of Bahraini society may shed some light on the problems facing the Kingdom in 2012, and perhaps guide us through possible steps toward reconciliation.
Are Iran’s leaders rational actors? This question matters when justifying any decision by Israel to preempt Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. An Iranian regime seen as driven to destroy the Jewish state has to be dealt with differently than one whose objectives are mediated by calculations of costs and benefits. Deterrents that would be normally expected to restrain a state would not work with an irrational Iran.
Originally posted September 2011
On August 21, 2011, rebel forces in Libya rolled into the capital Tripoli, seemingly finishing off months of armed combat and foreign intervention and bringing down yet another Arab head of state. At the same time, sporadic but violent repression of protests in Syria continues, while other states remain calm or have seen their protest movements fizzle. We open this second volume of our series, Revolution and Political Transformation¸ at a time of uncertainty and transition for the region.
Originally posted July 2010
In the past, there was no need for learning a foreign language. Today, however, learning foreign languages should be included in school curricula … Today is not like yesterday, when our voice could not reach beyond the national boundary. Today, we can stay in Iran but publicize [our ideology] and export our revolution to other parts of the world in different languages.
Ayatollah Khomeini, 1980[1]