Research & Commentary Results

Prime Minister Modi’s 2015 visit to the U.A.E. and subsequent events have seen India’s view of the region undergo a fundamental shift. This essay, the first of two parts, shows how New Delhi has come to regard the Gulf more as a source of investment and less as a source of energy and visas; and has begun to take a more strategic and military view of the region.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Charles Schmitz, Jonathan M. Winer, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah’s upcoming visit to Washington, recent clashes in Yemen, the French Foreign Minister’s trip to Libya, and the U.N. Human Rights Council’s discussion on Israel/Palestine.

Iran opposes “unjust” sanctions against Qatar and is ready to expand its relations with the Arab country in all fields, President Hassan Rouhani said in a phone conversation with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Thursday.  “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes what was imposed on Qatar was unfair and that it fuels tension between regional countries. Iran will do all in its power to cooperate with and assist the Qatari people and government as well as to [promote] regional stability,” Rouhani added.

Iran has welcomed the Qatari government’s decision to send its ambassador back to Tehran and restore full diplomatic relations between the two countries, the

Iranian media outlets, analysts and politicians warn that Saudi Arabia and its regional allies are cultivating close ties with Muqtada al-Sadr and other Iraqi Shiite clerics and political leaders to roll back Iran’s influence in post-Islamic State Iraq and the broader region. While some suggest that Riyadh’s outreach to Iraqi Shiites is part of the kingdom’s efforts to defuse tension with Tehran, others see it as a plot to isolate Iran. At the center of this debate is al-Sadr, who recently visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and is scheduled to travel to Egypt soon.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including next steps in the Syrian conflict de-escalation process, General Zinni’s mission to the Gulf, Qatari-Turkish relations, and crude oil informal cooperation.

The crisis which has engulfed the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) states since June 5, 2017, leading to an unprecedented diplomatic and economic blockade of Qatar, has effectively split the Gulf into three camps, fracturing the uneasy yet much-lauded unity of an alliance which has long prided itself on stability and security. This essay offers a possible explanation for Bahrain’s contradictory position regarding the crisis, and considers whether Manama can maintain it.

Armed drones are on the edge of widespread proliferation, with China now entering the market and a growing appetite for the lethal weapons in the Middle East. This new development, however, should not become reason for the United States to mimic China’s behavior. Instead, Washington should continue its policy of judicious flexibility in regard to drone sales.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

Read the full op-ed on the New York Daily News.

Amid all the accusations being traded recently against each other by Gulf Arab states some truths are getting lost in the smoke.

It has been true that Qatar has served as a sanctuary for leaders of groups that the U.S. or other countries deem to be terrorist organizations. That, however, is nothing new. It has been going on for at least 20 years — and one of those who had sanctuary was the mastermind of the 9-11 attacks.

The ongoing Saudi-led blockade of Qatar came as a surprise to the international community, including the European Union. When Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Egypt, and Bahrain cut ties with the Qatari monarchy, the E.U. found itself in a new and complex political reality. Though the intra-Gulf crisis had been simmering for quite a long time, it seems that the Europeans were not prepared for such a scenario. Ultimately, Europe must consider the severity of the current crisis’ potential diplomatic and economic consequences.

On Sunday, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani pledged support for Qatar in its latest standoff with Saudi Arabia and its regional allies and called for the expansion of bilateral ties between Tehran and Doha, the Iranian media reported.

The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.

After President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh last month, Iranian leaders were worried about the creation of a U.S.-supported alliance of regional Arab states led by Saudi Arabia to counter Irani

Read the full article on The Globe and Mail.

Those visiting Doha are often told by locals that the city is the epicentre for political deal-makings in the Middle East. If you just want to do business, go to Dubai, the Qatari political elites are fond of saying.