Turkish Views: Crisis and Opportunities for Turkey in 2023
As the Turkish Republic enters its centennial year, it seems to be at an inflection point. What has been the impact of the AKP’s rule and how might the opposition change Turkey’s direction if they manage to come to power? In this series of papers, seven prominent Turkish scholars weigh in on these questions, thinking about this from a wide variety of perspectives and focusing on a range of specific fields of policy, explaining how we got to the current juncture and where Turkey might go from here.
حياكة السجاد الإيراني شرق الفرات: رغم الرفض الشعبي جماعات إيرانية تزيد نفوذها في الحسكة
شهدت مدينة الحسكة شمال شرق سوريا يوم 22 أغسطس الحالي توزيعا لمنشورات وملصقات مناهضة للنفوذ الإيراني في المدينة، حيث ظهرت الملصقات في عدة مناطق حساسة وسط المدينة في المنطقة المعروفة بـ “المربع الأمني” التي تخضع لسيطرة جيش النظام السوري وميليشيات الدفاع الوطني التي أصبحت تخضع لنفوذ إيران.
“Carpet weaving” east of the Euphrates: Iranian proxy groups expand their influence in Syria’s Hasakah Province
On Aug. 22, the northeastern Syrian city of al-Hasakah was inundated with leaflets condemning creeping Iranian influence in the area. The printed messages were plastered around several highly sensitive locations in the city center, including the local branch of the Ba’ath Party, the neighborhoods of al-Matar and al-Mahatah, as well as near the Great Mosque and market streets.
From Tiger Forces to the 16th Brigade: Russia’s evolving Syrian proxies
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine renewed focus on Moscow’s earlier military intervention in Syria, which often became framed as a “testing ground” for the weapons and tactics it now employs against Ukrainian cities. But crucially, the Russian forces backing Assad’s embattled regime also understood the importance of rebuilding the broken Syrian security forces into more effective fighting units.
The renewal of the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program does not undermine Israeli national security per se but rather a longstanding tenet of Israel’s strategic thinking: that it must be able to fully eradicate any challenge to its military superiority deep inside enemy territory.
Syrian foreign policy in the Caucasus and Ukraine: An unbalanced, Russia-centered approach
The embattled Syrian regime’s need to preserve Russian military and political support has compelled Damascus to adopt the Kremlin line in its foreign policy positions toward the former Soviet space.
Is Chechnya’s leader a ticking time-bomb for Russian-Turkish relations?
Chechen strongman and close Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov claims he met with Turkish officials to discuss cooperation. If true, the claim would signify Turkey’s possible backsliding on some of its previous commitments as well as trigger a negative reaction from Ukraine.
Erdoğan in Tehran, but Turkey and Iran have plenty of mistrust to overcome
Iranian-Turkish trade and economic cooperation has been the all-important platform on which otherwise often tense bilateral relations could survive. With trade and economic ties now weakening, their geopolitical rivalry could sharply re-intensify.
Putin’s visit to the Islamic Republic: Bringing Iran closer to Russia while building long-term leverage over Tehran
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s July 19 visit to Tehran will have important repercussions for the region’s evolving security environment as well as the trajectory of Iranian-Russian relations more specifically. Although officially billed as seeking to revive the “Astana peace process” on Syria, the significance of the trip has less to do with the trilateral meeting between Iran, Russia, and Turkey and more with the deepening of ties between Moscow and Tehran.
Sudan has a longstanding strategic partnership with Turkey, forged on the basis of shared ideology and fostered by growing economic and political ties, that has proven resilient to regime change. Khartoum has not abandoned its relationship with Ankara despite the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 or the opposition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, Turkey’s former regional rivals and more recent cautious partners.
As Turkey’s economic woes worsen, a new currency crisis is approaching
Turkey’s economic problems continue to go from bad to worse. Its foreign trade deficit has reached a monthly average of $8 billion this year. Amid the sharp rise in global energy prices this spring following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s average gross energy imports shot up from $3-4 billion per month to $7-8 billion. A reduction in energy imports and the recovery of tourism this summer have not offset this, and the current account deficit continues to widen.
