Research & Commentary Results

With elections set for the fall, Tunisian voters are searching for leaders to emerge who can tackle issues of political fragmentation, long standing economic problems, growing protests, and a volatile regional environment with civil war in Libya on one side and political upheaval in Algeria on the other. Sarah Yerkes, a fellow with the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program, and Sharan Grewal, postdoctoral fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss.

Scholar Charles Tilly does not believe that social capital can, by itself, build democracy. In fact, according to Tilly, citizens lacking favorable environmental and historical conditions — even if highly engaged — cannot establish a democracy. If establishing democratic institutions is such an arduous task for citizens living under dictatorship, what political leverage do those living in the diaspora possess? This article explores how the Tunisian diasporas in Italy and France have sought to help implement the transition to democracy.

Observers of political affairs in the Arab world are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Arab League summit, set to be held at the end of March in Tunis. Although Syria will not participate in the meeting, the question of when, or how, to bring Damascus in from the cold after an eight-year suspension from the body will be the most important issue on the agenda.

When this month’s EU-Arab League Summit in Egypt was announced last September, the issue of African migration to Europe topped the agenda. Other high-priority issues have since been added — such as solving five regional conflicts and addressing security, trade, and multilateralism — but migration remains the highest priority for a Europe still reeling from the 2015 migrant crisis.

Since the intensive campaign of civil resistance that culminated in the January 2011 ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali after 24 years in power, Tunisia has undergone a political transition that has produced a new constitution, unharnessed civil society, and delivered much-needed political and economic reforms. Although the transition process has also included security sector reform (SSR), Tunisians remain insecure — subjected to a steady, unabated diet of everyday violence.   

In this week’s Weekly Briefing, contributors Paul Salem, Marvin G. Weinbaum, William Lawrence, Ruba Husari, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Arab Economic Summit held in Beirut this weekend, Afghanistan’s upcoming presidential elections, strikes in Tunisia, the Trump administration’s next steps on Iranian oil policy, and Saudi Aramco’s $10B bond issue.

While Tunisia remains geographically and politically distant from Saudi Arabia, its economic troubles may offer an opportunity for the kingdom to leverage fiscal aid to secure stronger bilateral ties.

The jihadist threat is not new to the Maghreb. However, the fallout of the 2011 Arab uprisings has fundamentally altered the political and security environment of North African countries. While states such as Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia witnessed an increase in deaths from jihadist attacks, others like Algeria and Morocco experienced a reduced impact.

Every year at the end of April, like clockwork, tensions rise between Morocco and the Polisario Front, the group leading the disputed region of Western Sahara’s independence movement. The timing coincides with the U.N. secretary-general’s annual report to the U.N. Security Council on the latest developments in the conflict, which is followed by a vote to renew the peacekeeping mission—known as MINURSO—that has been in place in the territory since 1991.

Leading up to long-awaited municipal elections, Tunisia is at a crossroads. The beginning of 2018 saw widespread protests and social unrest in both cities and rural areas, as economic stagnation and unemployment continue to worsen. However, the vote currently set for May 6 signals an opportunity for Tunisian youth, women, and minorities to make their voices heard.

The Middle East is the world’s most arid region and the one most dependent on renewable freshwater resources that originate outside its territories. These resources are largely contained in the Nile, Euphrates-Tigris, and Jordan river basins. An international law-based approach to transboundary watercourse development and management is vital for human security and regional stability. Applying legal principles in the Nile Basin is imperative, as unilateral actions by upstream countries can harm livelihoods on a large scale in downstream countries and destabilize their economies.

Returning to Tunisia for the first time in six years after facing charges of blasphemy for the making of “Laicite Inshallah,” her 2011 film about religious hypocrisy and government complicity with Islamist elements during and after President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, veteran filmmaker Nadia el-Fani experienced an emotional moment.

Standing on the stage at the Carthage Film Festival’s November 2017 screening of her film, “It Doesn’t Even Hurt,” which depicts her simultaneous battles with breast cancer and death threats from Islamist extremists, she began to weep.

Seven years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring in North Africa, demonstrators are taking to the streets again. In Tunisia, protesters demand change to new austerity laws, which compound already stagnant economic conditions and youth unemployment. Protests have also occurred in the small town of Jerada in Morocco following the deaths of two young miners. Both of these movements reflect ongoing socio-economic inequalities and were met with governmental crackdown.

Not until the early 1950s did ties develop between newly independent Indonesia and Tunisia, then still a French protectorate. Importantly, those ties were based mainly in politics, and not in religion. At the time, the Tunisian national movement, led by Habib Bourguiba, seems to have regarded Indonesia as an inspirational model of anti-colonial struggle. Bourguiba was also attracted to the idea of “non-alignment” advanced by Indonesian President Ahmed Sukarno Indonesia, among others. Today, more than six decades after having achieved independence, Tunisia again stands at a watershed in its political development — transitioning from an authoritarian to a democratic system. These circumstances have given the relationship between Indonesia and Tunisia a fresh tailwind.

Widespread protests have rocked Tunisia in recent weeks in response to a series of tax increases, exposing a general frustration among the population who have yet to see the fruits of the 2011 revolution. Are these the growing pains of a nascent democracy, or is Tunisia at another breaking point? Dokhi Fassihian (Freedom House), Eric Goldstein (Human Rights Watch), and Tunisian journalist and researcher Asma Ghribi join Paul Salem to discuss.