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The US must remain engaged in Lebanon or risk Russian and Chinese gains
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) meets with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun (R) at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of the capital Beirut on March 22, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • The US must remain engaged in Lebanon or risk Russian and Chinese gains

    Amid an unprecedented political, economic, and financial crisis and the emergence of a new threat from the global coronavirus pandemic, Lebanon needs all the help it can get. The U.S. has long been an important source of assistance, and yet, as conversations with officials in both Beirut and Washington make clear, the argument for halting U.S. aid to Lebanon seems to be gaining ground.

    March 18, 2020

    Algeria-Europe economic integration: Where are we now and where do we go?
    Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) receives Abdelmadjid Tebboune (r), President of Algeria, in front of the Federal Chancellery for the Libya Conference.
  • Analysis
  • Algeria-Europe economic integration: Where are we now and where do we go?

    In the face of Algeria’s Hirak protest movement, the response of the EU so far has been measured, and it is notable that the EU’s calls for democratic reform are framed in economic terms that emphasize the benefits of greater economic integration between the states of the Maghreb. What opportunities do the ongoing changes in Algeria present for enhancing economic integration in the long term?

    March 17, 2020

    Iran and Russia: A tale of unfulfilled economic potential
    Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, Masoud Karbasian (L) and Russias Energy Minister Alexander Novak shake hands at a signing ceremony following a meeting of the Russian-Iranian intergovernmental commission for trade and economic cooperation at Moscow's President Hotel
  • Analysis
  • Iran and Russia: A tale of unfulfilled economic potential

    The outbreak of a Russian-Saudi oil price war earlier this month might offer some comfort to Iran, a country which has in recent years become unnerved by the increasingly close ties between Moscow and Riyadh. However, it is premature to see an Iranian geopolitical win emerging from the Russian-Saudi spat, and history should give Tehran plenty of reservations about Moscow’s ability to deliver on its economic promises to Iran. While Iran and Russia will likely continue to pay lip-service to the idea of an economic partnership, each side will remain preoccupied with larger concerns. This is a tale of unfulfilled economic potential.  

    The economic outlook for MENA amid COVID-19 and the oil price drop
    A labourer sprays disinfectant in Jordan's archaeological city of Petra south of the capital Amman on March 17, 2020, to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
  • Analysis
  • The economic outlook for MENA amid COVID-19 and the oil price drop

    Economies around the world are being battered by two “black swan” events at the same time: the COVID-19 virus and the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Naturally, the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are also affected, although each in different ways. Those that are net users of energy, which could have benefitted substantially from the vastly lower energy prices, are getting hit hard by COVID-19, while oil and gas producers are suffering from an all-out oil price war made worse by the steep decline in worldwide demand caused by the pandemic. 

    March 17, 2020

    The Ferghana Valley Railway Should Never Be Built
    (Photo by Cancan Chu/Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • The Ferghana Valley Railway Should Never Be Built

    A planned Kashgar to Osh railway is part of China’s Eurasian Intercontinental CR Express rail freight policy. It would require a huge amount of new construction, massive public debt for Kyrgyzstan and would provide no clear economic benefit. The proposed line would also actually be longer than the existing route from Urumqi to Tashkent via Kazakhstan.

    March 17, 2020

    Normalizing Houthi gains in Yemen puts Marib at serious risk
    Houthi fighters gather on a vehicle in a recently captured area following heavy fighting with forces loyal to the internationally recognized government on March 2, 2020 in Al-Jawf province, Yemen.
  • Analysis
  • Normalizing Houthi gains in Yemen puts Marib at serious risk

    Just a week after Houthi rebels took control of al-Hazm, the capital of al-Jawf Province, on March 1, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths paid an unprecedented, one-day visit to the Houthis’ likely next target, oil-and-gas-rich Marib, reiterating the urgent need for de-escalation.

    March 16, 2020

    A perfect storm has hit Iraq
    An Iraqi man, wearing a protective mask, stands inside a coffee shop with a sign in Arabic which reads
  • Commentary
  • A perfect storm has hit Iraq

    Recent developments are making it increasingly difficult for the months-old protest movement to sustain its momentum.

    March 16, 2020

    The puzzling outcome of the Moscow Summit
    Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin at a press conference following their meeting at the Moscow Kremlin.
  • Analysis
  • The puzzling outcome of the Moscow Summit

    In changing the balance of power on the ground and forcing hostilities to a stalemate, Turkey’s military intervention in Idlib had produced its desired effect. On March 5, Vladimir Putin and Erdogan sat together for six hours and announced to the world a comprehensive cease-fire and the establishment of a secure corridor spanning six kilometers on the north and south sides of the M4 highway.

    The Forgotten Iraq
     Iraqi civilians, who fled from Daesh controlled Hawija district of Kirkuk, are seen at Daqouq tent city southern Kirkuk, Iraq on November 12, 2017. (Photo by Ali Mukarrem Garip/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • The Forgotten Iraq

    The story from Iraq since last October has been mainly one of uplifting hope, as mass protests sweep across the country in a fight against corruption, nepotism, and bad governance. But what of the places left behind and ignored? For most of its modern history, Iraq has been embroiled in sectarianism and conflict, most recently with the rise of ISIS. The country has celebrated its ability to fight ISIS and take back the areas the group controlled between 2013 and 2017, but for those that remain in the most vulnerable liberated areas, life is precarious and dangerous, with underserviced communities living in the most dire of conditions.

    March 16, 2020

    US-Russia standoffs in northeast Syria: Just getting started
    A Russian soldier looks through binoculars on the key M4 highway in Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province on January 20, 2020. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP) (Photo by DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • US-Russia standoffs in northeast Syria: Just getting started

    As Syria’s war reaches its ninth anniversary, Russian and U.S. soldiers are increasingly finding themselves face to face — quite literally — in the country’s northeast. A spate of confrontations over the last two months has opened questions about the fate of Syria’s north in the coming year.

    March 16, 2020

    Israeli elections and the Joint List
    Ayman Odeh (C), leader of the Hadash party that is part of the Joint List alliance, gives an address with other alliance leaders at their electoral headquarters in Israel's northern city of Shefa-Amr on March 2, 2020, after polls officially closed.
  • Commentary
  • Israeli elections and the Joint List

    Whether or not Gantz succeeds in forming a government, the Joint List has cemented its role as “king makers” in Israeli politics.

    March 16, 2020

    Keeping the UN political track in Libya alive
     Fighters of the UN-backed Government of National Accord take cover during clashes with Libyan National Army forces at Al-Nahr frontline in Tripoli, Libya, on March 8, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Keeping the UN political track in Libya alive

    Libyan oil production has collapsed to less than 100,000 bpd as Hifter has continued to amass forces for what some claim to be a final push into the nation’s capital and largest city.