Research & Commentary Results

Amb. Lukman Faily, Iraq’s ambassador to the United States from 2013-2016, and Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, join host Paul Salem to analyze the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections and their implications for Iraq, the region, and U.S. policy going forward.

As Lebanon holds its first parliamentary elections in nine years and Iraq paves a way forward in the aftermath of the war against ISIS, many questions remain as to what the political future holds for both countries. The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 6, and in Iraq on May 12, serve as a barometer for transparency, inclusion, and the political realities in both countries. The polls have raised pressing political and governance issues such as how to overcome sectarianism, corruption, and economic stagnation in order to encourage further openness and plurality.
 

As Iraqis are heading to the polls on Saturday to vote in the country’s parliamentary elections, the Fateh Alliance, a coalition dominated by Iranian-backed militia groups, is confident that it will win sufficient parliamentary seats to choose the country’s next prime minister. Abu Ala al-Wa’eli, the commander of Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, a militia unit within the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) and part of the Fateh Alliance, said the alliance has not nominated anyone to become the next prime minister but will play the kingmaker in the post-election government formation process.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s decision on whether to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, what this weekend’s election results in Lebanon indicate about Hezbollah’s standing in the country, and expectations for the outcome of Iraq’s elections on May 12.

Nabil Musa learned how to swim and fish in the Tanjero River in the city of Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. The Tanjero eventually joins the Tigris River, which, together with the Euphrates River, gave life to Mesopotamia.

With Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections nearing, the coalition of Iranian-supported militia groups called Fateh Alliance is confident that it can translate its military gains into a political victory by either winning the premiership or playing kingmaker in the post-election government formation process, according to Tasnim News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Since the ratification of Iraq’s constitution in 2005, Iraq has struggled to interpret clauses 111 and 112, which stipulate that oil is the property of the Iraqi people and its revenues should be shared equitably. Several draft laws on hydrocarbon management, energy sector regulation, and oil revenue distribution have remained stalled because of differences between the federal government and the Kurdistan region over the interpretation of those clauses.

Fifteen years after the fall of the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq is still engaged in the process of transitioning to a system of governance representative of its population. The new Iraq has experienced meaningful progress and serious setbacks. While the upcoming elections, slated for May, promise a further constructive push, Iraq faces serious structural impediments to progress—including a divisive political environment and significant social challenges in the wake of ISIS—and should expect incremental rather than revolutionary change.

A prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia group has said that its forces will stand by the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria to defend it against any attacks by the United States and its allies.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian paid a one-day visit to Tehran on Monday to discuss Iran’s controversial missile program and regional activities. Iranian leaders told the top French diplomat that European countries should put pressure on the Trump administration to keep and implement that Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.

Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Organization, has said that an alliance of Shiite militia forces that fought against the Islamic State will now shift attention to politics and will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In an interview with the Lebanese al-Mayadeen TV, Amiri said that the Fateh Alliance, a coalition of Iranian-supported Shiite units within the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), will take an active part in the elections and expressed the hope that it can play a major role in the next government.

Summary

Tehran’s Ambassador to Baghdad Iraj Masjedi held a meeting with the leader of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iraqi militia group fighting in Iraq and Syria, to discuss Iraqi and regional issues,

A commander of the Iraqi paramilitary forces known as Hashd al-Shaabi has called for suspension of Asharq al-Awsat in Iraq, accusing the pan-Arab daily of propagating against the paramilitary forces. According Iran’s Fars News Agency, Karim al-Nouri, a commander of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization and a spokesman for Hashd al-Shaabi, was reacting to an article in the newspaper which warned about Hashd al-Shaabi turning into a Shiite-only organization in Iraq.

Recent media reports suggesting that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman plan to pay a historic visit to Iraq has alarmed Iran and its Iraqi allies. Baghdad and Riyadh have not confirmed the reports, but Iranian-backed politicians and militia commanders in Iraq have launched a campaign against the Crown Prince’s potential visit, rejecting latest steps by the Baghdad government to improve ties with Riyadh and questioning the timing of bin Salman’s trip ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections.