While non-Arab powers have taken the lead in the Syrian crisis so far, Damascus will need to restore political, economic, and diplomatic ties with regional Arab states as it moves into the phase of postwar reconstruction and development.
While OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC members agreed to cut oil production last week by 1.2 million bpd, Riyadh’s ability to control the cartel and global oil prices is waning.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, and F. Gregory Gause, head of the Department of International Affairs at Texas A&M University, join host Jerry Feierstein to discuss the state of GCC relations amid the Qatar dispute and other crises heading into the next GCC Summit.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including Russian air strikes in Aleppo, the elections in Bahrain, the growing international interest in Egypt’s offshore energy finds, and the appointment of a new Afghan team of negotiators for peace talks.
Although the Trump administration has said it will issue temporary waivers to some major importers of Iranian oil, further declines in Iran’s exports are likely after sanctions come into effect on Nov. 4.
Although the current oil-market landscape might seem beneficial to the Gulf states, it will be difficult to sustain amid major drops in global oil supply, Washington’s standoff with Moscow and Tehran, and quota disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
On Sep. 13, 1993, President Bill Clinton presided over one of the most dramatic handshakes in modern history. On the White House lawn, the handshake between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the Palestinian Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat was hailed as a political breakthrough that would constitute the dawn of a new era for the Middle East. Now, 25 years after the announcement of the Declaration of Principles––also known as the Oslo Accords––the prospect of peace appears more elusive than ever.
Bearish and bullish factors are both at play in the global oil market, weighing on prices. The next big date on the calendar is November 4 — the point at which the 180-day wind-down period ends and U.S. sanctions on the Iranian energy sector are to be reinstated. Two days later, the U.S. midterm elections are due to take place.
Last week, major news outlets reported that China National Petroleum Corporation had acquired French oil and gas company Total’s share in the development of Iran’s South Pars gas field, citing an elusive article published by Iranian state news agency IRNA.
Three months after Iraq held its latest parliamentary elections the results are still being counted. Meanwhile political parties are jockeying for power and Iraqi citizens are taking to the streets to protest the government’s handling of services and the economy. Dr. Abbas Kadhim, senior fellow at Johns Hopkins SAIS, Omar Al-Nidawi, Iraq director for Gryphon Partners, and Dr. Randa Slim, director of MEI’s Program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, join host Paul Salem to discuss the situation.
Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, and Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, join host Paul Salem to discuss the Helsinki Summit and takeaways from the latest meeting of the US-Russia Middle East Dialogue in Berlin, where participants outlined challenges and opportunities for US-Russian cooperation in Syria and elsewhere in the region.
Even though energy production and exports are the lifeblood of all Arab states in the Gulf, the present crisis between Qatar on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other has had very little influence on the economics of oil and gas either internationally or within the region. However, the countries involved have a lot to gain from a resolution of the conflict, particularly if it leads to greater energy market integration.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on the US’s silence amid the Assad regime’s expansion, the Iranian president’s trip to Europe, the uptick in violence after Iraq’s elections, and the upcoming Pakistani parliamentary elections.
The decline of the US’s role in Syria
Charles Lister, Senior Fellow
As international companies leave Iran under U.S. pressure, the Iranian government is scrambling to salvage as much foreign investment as possible. The top leadership in Tehran believes the solution is to engage with Russia, China, and the “east” to replace the West’s hesitant commitment to the Iranian market. But this eastward approach is a pipe dream, and there is plenty of history to prove it.
Iran’s Russian desires
Amb. Lukman Faily, Iraq’s ambassador to the United States from 2013-2016, and Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, join host Paul Salem to analyze the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections and their implications for Iraq, the region, and U.S. policy going forward.