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Turkey’s westward energy shift
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin (not seen) attend the opening ceremony of TurkStream natural gas pipeline project, at Halic Congress Center in Istanbul, Turkey on January 08, 2020.
  • التحليل
  • Turkey’s westward energy shift

    On Jan. 8, Turkey inaugurated the TurkStream natural gas pipeline from Russia, seemingly deepening Ankara’s ties with Moscow. However, a fuller analysis of Turkey’s current energy policies and consumption trends indicate a dramatic shift westward, away from Russia and Iran.

    January 15, 2020

    The Humanitarian Disaster During the Battle for Baghouz
    Civilians evacuated from the Islamic State (IS) group's embattled holdout of Baghouz wait for bread and water at a screening area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor, on March 5, 2019. - More than 7,000 people, mostly women and children, have fled the shrinking pocket over the past two days, as US-backed forces press ahead with an offensive to crush holdout jihadists. (Photo by Bulent KILIC / AFP) (Photo credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP via
  • التحليل
  • The Humanitarian Disaster During the Battle for Baghouz

    It is unclear how many civilians were killed in February and March 2019, when the U.S.-led coalition and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pounded ISIS’s last enclave around the town of Baghouz. Presumably, the numbers reached into the thousands. Those who escaped found themselves in the desert, hundreds of kilometers away from lifesaving aid. The reasons for the failure of the humanitarian response were mainly political.

    January 14, 2020

    Jihadism in South Asia: A militant landscape in flux
    An aerial view taken on November 1, 2019, shows the site where the Islamic State group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was reportedly killed according to US president Donald Trump, in a daring nighttime raid by US special forces near the small village of Barisha in northwestern Syria.
  • التحليل
  • Jihadism in South Asia: A militant landscape in flux

    Over the past five years, the focus of U.S. counterterrorism strategists has remained on the Middle East, especially after the emergence of ISIS in 2014, while Islamist terrorist organizations operating in South Asia have been considered a secondary threat. However, the fact remains that South Asia is home to more Islamist terrorist organizations than any other region of the world. Al-Qaeda was born there, in Afghanistan, and ISIS has roots in the region. But at the turn of the decade both global jihadist groups are now facing major challenges and the critical question is whether they will manage to survive this period of crisis amid a severe leadership vacuum following the death of ISIS’s supreme leader and caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the killing of al-Qaeda heir apparent Hamza bin Laden. 

    January 8, 2020

    Caesar Bill could ratchet up US sanctions on the Syrian regime and its allies
    Members of the Syrian security forces gather at the border-crossing between Albu Kamal in Syria and Al-Qaim in Iraq, on the Syrian side in the eastern region of Deir Ezzor, on September 30, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • Caesar Bill could ratchet up US sanctions on the Syrian regime and its allies

    After several years of behind-the-scenes efforts, the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act will be signed into law in Washington. It is an extraordinarily expansive and aggressive piece of legislation, allowing for a significant expansion of sanctions against Syrian regime figures and bodies, including the Central Bank and multiple sectors of the state economy. More significantly, the “Caesar Bill” will place an expectation on the U.S. government to sanction any individual or organization anywhere in the world who provides any form of financial support to the Syrian regime that furthers its ability to repress its people.

    Azerbaijani gas is now ready to flow all the way to Europe
    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (3rd L) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (2nd L) attend the opening ceremony of the TANAP-Europe connection in Ipsala district of Edirne, Turkey on November 30, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • Azerbaijani gas is now ready to flow all the way to Europe

    Turkey has completed the next-to-last piece of the 2,000-mile Southern Gas Corridor, a three-pipeline network that will send gas from Azerbaijan’s huge Shah Deniz field via Georgia and Turkey to Western Europe.

    It was such a big deal that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia presided at the ribbon-cutting on Nov. 30. They were celebrating the completion of the pipeline that is the middle link in the Southern Gas Corridor: the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which traverses Turkey.

    December 11, 2019

    Blockchain adoption in the Gulf states
  • التحليل
  • Blockchain adoption in the Gulf states

    The subject of extensive international interest and attention over the past few years, blockchain technology is regarded as a key component of the fourth industrial revolution. This article seeks to shed light on the use of blockchain technology in the Gulf states by analyzing current trends of blockchain adoption in the region compared to those internationally. In so doing, it will determine Gulf institutions’ capacity for keeping pace with the changes and developments blockchain adoption has introduced.

    December 10, 2019

    Rouhani vs. the pump: Ignoring better policy alternatives, again?
    Iranians fill their vehicles at a petrol station in Tehran, on November 15, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • Rouhani vs. the pump: Ignoring better policy alternatives, again?

    Faced with rapidly deteriorating public finances, Iranian policymakers had no choice but to reduce gasoline subsidies through a combination of rationing and price hikes. However, the way in which they did so was problematic, especially when they had other, better policy options that would have ensured a more equitable, effective, and efficient outcome.

    December 5, 2019

    The Saudi Aramco IPO: Short-term success, long-term loss
    A picture taken on November 3, 2019 shows a sign of Saudi Aramco's initial public offering (IPO) during a press conference by the state company in the eastern Saudi Arabian region of Dhahran.
  • تعليق
  • The Saudi Aramco IPO: Short-term success, long-term loss

    The Saudi Aramco IPO got started this Sunday morning with shares priced at SAR 30-32 ($8-8.50) each, valuing the company at $1.7 trillion, $300 billion below the original estimate. The lower valuation has been expected for some time by most investment banks and many financial analysts. The proceeds are expected to fund the Public Investment Fund’s forays into non-energy-based companies, advanced technologies, and even robot-filled cities.

    November 18, 2019

    Despair and Decay: East Ghouta After 18 Months of Renewed Regime Rule
    Syrian children ride their bike past destroyed buildings in the former rebel-held town of Zamalka, in Eastern Ghouta on April 5, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / STRINGER (Photo credit should read STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)
  • التحليل
  • Despair and Decay: East Ghouta After 18 Months of Renewed Regime Rule

    East Ghouta is perhaps the darkest example of renewed Assad regime rule over former opposition territory. 18 months after the regime recaptured the area, its security forces and intelligence apparatus continue to terrorize Syrians there. Night-time raids on homes, mass arrests, and forced disappearances are common occurrences across the region. Intelligence forces assert themselves in every aspect of daily life, especially at the ubiquitous checkpoints where personnel extort residents for bribes when they pass, subjecting them to security checks that can lead to civilians either being arrested on the spot or conscripted into military service. In addition, residents of East Ghouta are facing a humanitarian crisis amid a total lack of basic services, from sewage to schools and hospitals, and the basic pillars of the local economy remain in total disrepair.

    November 14, 2019

    The US has a partner in eastern Syria — provided it has the will
    A US military convoy drives on a highway from Kobane to Ain Issa on September 29, 2017. After a months-long campaign, the Syrian Democratic Forces -- a US-backed alliance of Arab and Kurdish fighters -- have cornered diehard jihadists in a pocket of territory in the battered northern city of Raqa. / AFP PHOTO / BULENT KILIC (Photo credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images)
  • التحليل
  • The US has a partner in eastern Syria — provided it has the will

    The Trump administration inherited a number of complex problems in the Syrian file from its predecessors in the White House. In dealing with the Syrian crisis, the Obama administration had three main priorities: not disturbing Iran in Syria during the process of nuclear negotiations, working with Russia toward a ceasefire in various parts of Syria (without trusting that Russia could deliver or should have the upper hand), and, most importantly, carrying out a limited military intervention in the northeast to defeat ISIS — an issue it considered separately from the Syrian crisis.

    October 29, 2019

    Borders Beyond Borders: The Many (Many) Kurdish Political Parties of Syria
     A demonstrator makes the
  • التحليل
  • Borders Beyond Borders: The Many (Many) Kurdish Political Parties of Syria

    The launch of Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syria on Oct. 9 represents an existential threat for the Autonomous Administration in Northeast Syria (AANES) and Kurdish parties in Syria as a whole, prompting Kurdish political factions, both within Syria and abroad, to reevaluate their survival strategies and alliances. This report explores the various political factions within the Kurdish coalitions in Syria as they functioned under the AANES and the major rifts between them. Even under these dire circumstances Kurdish political factions in Syria have responded to the Turkish invasion independently.

    October 25, 2019

    Resolving the Lebanese-Israeli border dispute: What’s in it for Washington?
    Lebanese President Michel Aoun (L) meets U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth Richard (R) at Baabda Palace in Beirut, Lebanon on May 9, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • Resolving the Lebanese-Israeli border dispute: What’s in it for Washington?

    On Sept. 25, Lebanese President Michel Aoun told the UN General Assembly that Lebanon is prepared to welcome any country’s help in demarcating its land and maritime borders. He was referring to Lebanon’s decades-old border dispute with Israel, the resolution of which has become increasingly important as the country inches closer toward its first oil and gas drilling operations later this year.

    October 24, 2019