In Turkish-Russian relations, the Ukraine grain deal is not the point
The Ukraine grain export deal, which Turkey helped mediate over the summer, was saved last week to much fanfare; but the central unaddressed issue remains lifting Russia’s illegal blockade of Ukrainian ports, so Ukraine can freely trade with the world.
Syria’s Failings Should Guide Misdirected Iran Policy
If the West is committed to not repeat the mistakes of the past, it can forge a third way that honors the protestors and rejects the tyrants in Tehran.
As liquidity problems worsen, Turkey turns to capital controls and informal FX flows
The Turkish economy’s foreign exchange liquidity problem is getting worse. The current account balance has been in the red this year with a monthly deficit of around $5 billion. The government has so far managed to avoid a repeat of the December 2021 currency shock by restricting capital mobility, further tightening regulations in October 2022.
Tehran lashes out at Israelis’ support for Iranian protest movement
The Iranian regime is pointing the finger at Israel and the U.S. for allegedly orchestrating the nationwide protests. But while the U.S. and Israel both might have an interest in shaping and aiding the protest movement once it began, this large-scale mobilization of the Iranian public is a result of the regime’s own policies.
The SCO Summit in Samarkand: Reviving Iran and Uzbekistan relations on an oil and transit axis
The 22nd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in the Uzbekistani city of Samarkand this past September turned out to be a boon for Iran’s regional policy. Not only was the Islamic Republic extended a roadmap to join the grouping, but the meeting also offered a convenient opportunity to revive and strengthen ties with Uzbekistan.
Albania finds itself caught in the middle as Iran and the West square off
Albania, a close U.S. ally, has found itself on the front line of the clash between the West and Iran. Though angered by the MEK’s presence in Albania, to date, there is little evidence to suggest that Tehran intends to further fuel the conflict with Tirana. This could change, however, If the Iranian proxy war with the U.S. and Israel intensifies.
During the second week of October, unprecedented full-fledged military confrontations broke out in northern Syria between factions of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) subsequently intervening in support of some factions over others. Tukey’s weariness about the constantly deteriorating state of security in the north, resulting mainly from infighting among the SNA forces it backs, and its willingness to impose order on them, could explain its silence on HTS’s military aggression. For HTS, however, expanding its rule and settling scores with some SNA factions may be the main drivers behind its recent attacks.
Since June 2015 and especially after the failed coup attempt in July 2016, the AKP has taken an increasingly nationalist and Eurasianist turn, as Erdoğan worked to consolidate power by satisfying various nationalist elements. The transition to the presidential system in mid-2018 has intensified Turkey’s existing foreign policy problems and given rise to new ones. This paper lays out the evolution of the AKP’s foreign policy, the consequences of the transition to the presidential system, the impact of Erdoğan’s coalition with the nationalists and Eurasianists, and potential pathways forward.
The Islamic Republic’s authorities have learned that they don’t need to take Washington’s reactions to internal oppressions very seriously. Presumably, in their view, as long as the Biden administration maintains even the slightest hope for a new nuclear deal with Tehran, it will not take any tough actions vis-à-vis Iran’s domestic policies.
Iran’s playbook in the Arab world: Ideology or domestic politics?
Over a span of more than four decades, Iran’s foreign policy toward the United States, Israel, and the Arab world has demonstrated remarkable continuity. The ideological underpinnings of the first decade were substituted with regime security and national security exigencies in the later decades.
The Costs of a Presidential System: The Impact of Hyper-Centralization on Turkey’s Educational and Cultural Affairs
Turkey’s transition to a hyper-centralized presidential system has had a devastating impact on its educational and cultural affairs. The erosion of the rule of law and due process and the ensuing arbitrary rule by an all-powerful president have given rise to a growing malaise in the educational and cultural fields. The fragility of academic and media freedoms and the lack of legal and cultural norms guaranteeing freedom of speech compound the problem.
Following the AKP’s rise in 2002, civil-military relations in Turkey began to change significantly. The military’s tutelage over Turkish politics was gradually replaced with the AKP’s control over the Turkish Armed Forces. The July 2016 coup attempt put an end to the military’s prestige and popularity and ushered in a new era, with Erdoğan and his AKP asserting full civilian control over the military. This paper explores the factors that paved the way for the new civil-military relations between 2002 and 2016, reviews how the 2016 coup attempt became an opportunity for the AKP to further eliminate all opposition, and analyzes the impact of the upcoming 2023 elections and the opposition’s stance on civil-military relations.
