Research & Commentary Results

In late May, Saudi Aramco signed an agreement to buy 5 million tons per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from San Diego-based Sempra Energy’s planned LNG terminal in Port Arthur, Texas. The deal exemplifies Saudi Aramco’s determination to boost the share of LNG and petrochemicals in its portfolio before its long-awaited public offering in 2021.

The launch of General Khalifa Hifter’s campaign to retake Tripoli in April has intensified Libya’s political upheaval and created the conditions for a potential resurgence of ISIS. The onset of the Libyan civil war in mid-2014 gave rise to a power vacuum that enabled the group to establish an initial presence in Libya, and while ISIS was eventually driven out at the end of 2016, the current political instability could give it an opportunity to regroup and re-establish itself — with major ramifications for the country and the broader region.

As fighting rages across the last opposition-held province of Idlib, the war in Syria has reached its brutal endgame. The Syrian army’s offensive, launched in early May, will not be quick, but rather marks the start of what will likely be a prolonged, violent, and ultimately costly campaign. If the first few weeks of the operation are anything to go by, resistance will be fierce — fiercer than initially expected — and as the world’s attention shifts toward Idlib, the stakes are now higher than ever.

Approximately 10,000-20,000 Afghan men, mostly from the Hazara ethnic group, have fought in Syria in support of the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Organized by Iran and led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other affiliated groups, they have gathered under the banner of the so-called “Fatemiyoun” Division. This is the story of one of those men, Mohammed Jalil Dinsta, told through selections from his writings, alongside relevant analysis.

At the heart of the conflict in Iraq has been a clash of visions over the identity and ownership of the Iraqi state. The post-2003 conflict was, in effect, a violent renegotiation of both the political compact in place since the 1960s and of the balance of power among regional and international players.

A “black hole” of information, East Ghouta is a dark example of the reimposition of the Assad regime’s rule over a community once controlled by the opposition. This paper, produced in association with ETANA Syria, shines a light on what the regime’s military rule looks like on the ground and the resulting human rights violations against the population, and details the scale of the Iranian presence in key strategic locations around Damascus.

On Easter Sunday (April 21), a series of devastating terror attacks struck popular churches and high-end hotels in Sri Lanka. These tragic events rocked the nation and reverberated across Asia and beyond. This article discusses the circumstances surrounding the bombings and the authorities’ initial responses to them, and suggests ways to help reduce the risk of extremist violence in Sri Lanka.

The rise of ISIS post-2013 changed how we perceive jihadism, but it also transformed how jihadists perceive themselves and how they behave. ISIS’s brutality and indiscriminate violence created unprecedented fragmentation within the jihadi movement, leading to critical self-reflection and changes in codes of conduct. This paper examines how three different jihadi groups – the Afghan Taliban, al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-Continent, and Tehreek- e-Taliban Pakistan (or the Pakistani Taliban) – responded to the challenges presented by ISIS.

Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the other two zones.

The Voices of Syria project is an undertaking by the Middle East Institute, in partnership with Syrian civil society, to better inform the general public and to guide policymakers toward a more holistic view of the situation in Syria by leveraging the voices of the unheard and their hopes and aspirations.

Iran’s huge hydrocarbons reserves and Turkey’s growing demand for oil and gas seem to suggest great potential for energy collaboration. US sanctions and pricing disputes, however, limit and complicate the prospects of such a partnership.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.

New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts

Paul Salem
President

Despite the many obstacles, the U.S. and Iraq continue to work together to combat the threat of ISIS, and security elites in Baghdad and Washington understand the importance and value of the relationship. Yet, populists on both sides have repeatedly tested the others’ will in a dangerous game of chicken.

The suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) has been one of ISIS’s most powerful and versatile weapons. The group consistently adapted its SVBIED designs based on operational environment and other factors, with modifications in armor, payload organization, color, and detonation technology. ISIS’s research and development of SVBIED technology presents a continued threat, even after the collapse of the territorial caliphate, due to the group’s ability to share and export its designs, enabling nascent ISIS provinces halfway around the world to launch powerful attacks on unsuspecting communities.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Emadeddin Badi, Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Shahrokh Fardoust provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist group, the battle for control of Tripoli in Libya, the impact of Israel’s elections on the Palestinian crisis, Iraqi PM Abdul-Mahdi’s first official visit to Iran, and the spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF in DC.