Pakistan needs to reframe its regional connectivity push
On April 8, the top U.S. diplomat in Pakistan visited the Chinese-operated port of Gwadar — the first such visit by an American official in 15 years. The move appears to be part of a campaign by Pakistan to promote its regional connectivity agenda and simultaneously signal that this effort isn’t solely wedded to China and its Belt and Road Initiative.
Eye on Niamey: Middle East regional powers vie for influence in Niger
Due to its relatively stable political institutions, geographic proximity to Libya, and UNSC seat, regional powers in the Middle East are competing for influence in Niger. Egypt and the UAE are trying to counter Turkey’s growing economic and security cooperation with Niger, Saudi Arabia and Iran wish to leverage its UNSC voting power, and Israel is testing the waters for a potential normalization of diplomatic relations. These rivalries are poised to intensify, as the Sahel’s geostrategic significance continues to expand.
A rigged election in Somalia could open the door to civil war
The May 1 vote by Somalia’s caretaker lower house of parliament to scrap the illegal extension of Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s presidential term and back fresh elections is a step in the right direction. Known popularly as Farmaajo, Mohamed’s term in office expired in early February, giving rise to a political crisis that has raised serious questions about the country’s stability. The clashes between Farmaajo loyalist and opposition military units in Mogadishu at the end of April and the suicide bomb attack on a police station in the capital’s Waberi district on May 9 are only the latest signs of a worsening security crisis. The potential for violence to escalate further is all too real and more will need to be done, especially on the part of Somalia’s donors, to ensure a peaceful election and transfer of power.
Making sense of the Iran-China strategic agreement
The 25-year agreement between Iran and China that made headlines this past month is far from new. It was first announced in 2016 during a state visit by President Xi Jinping to Tehran, at a time when sanctions on Iran were being lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Chinese and Iranian officials have been working out the details of the deal ever since as part of a slow process of consultation and negotiations. The timing of the latest announcement about the agreement is, therefore, less about developments in relations between Beijing and Tehran and more about the fast-deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington. China is looking to identify areas where it can cultivate leverage, and Iran is a prime opportunity.
What does the transition in Chad mean for Middle Eastern regional powers?
On April 20, Chadian President Idriss Déby was killed by Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) rebels in the country’s northwestern Tibesti region. The sudden death of Déby, who seized power in Chad via a military coup in December 1990 and was re-elected on April 11 with 79.3% of the vote, risks plunging Chad into a state of prolonged instability.
Marvin Weinbaum and David Sedney join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the recently announced U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan and what it means for the country, the U.S., and the region as a whole.
Failing to learn from past mistakes, Pakistan caves to the TLP
The Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) has exposed the Pakistani state’s vulnerability to ultra-conservative Islamist groups that have been mainstreamed for narrow political and strategic purposes by the country’s security establishment and self-serving politicians. Only a week after declaring the TLP a terrorist group and banning it, the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government gave in to the group’s demands in the face of violent protests by its supporters
Jonathan Winer and Mirette Mabrouk join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Libya’s new interim government, the complex regional and international dynamics at play, and what Libya’s future might look like.
