When Osama bin Laden carefully recruited a number of Saudis to carry out the 9/11 attacks, his intention was to drive a wedge between his two enemies, the United States and the Saudi government. Fifteen years after the attacks, the JASTA legislation appears to be doing just that.
The State Department has welcomed an agreement among all Yemeni parties and the Saudi-led coalition to observe a 72-hour cease-fire beginning on October 19. The warring factions agreed to “implement a full and comprehensive halt to military activities of any kind and help facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Yemenis across the country.”[i]
The parties to the intractable Yemen war appear further entrenched in their enmity than ever before, despite U.S. and British efforts to push Yemeni leaders toward new negotiations.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Russia’s recent escalation of military force in Syria, deteriorating Saudi-Iranian relations, and an escalation in the Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
Russia’s Sharp Escalation in Syria
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
“[Food insecurity has] the potential to amplify destabilization, engender violence, and even accelerate state failure processes in an already geopolitically charged region”
– Andy Spiess in Food Security in the GCC Economies (2012)
I. Introduction
Continuing low oil prices have prompted Persian Gulf states to diversify their heavily petro-dependent economies. This issue is forcing the oil-rich states to invest and expand their potential as international trade hubs as a pathway away from the time bomb of single commodity exports. As many Gulf states have outlined in economic plans, as well as developed on the ground, maritime trade is an increasingly essential link connecting the Middle East to the global economy.
Summary
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, Charles Schmitz, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on current issues including Turkey’s regional diplomacy as President Erdogan is set to visit Tehran, the Iranian perspective on Turkey’s role in the region, Secretary Kerry’s visit to Saudi Arabia amid renewed fighting in Yemen, and ongoing attempts to broker a cease-fire deal in Syria.
Read the full article on ABC News.
In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Hassan Mneimneh, Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ISIS bombing in Baghdad, this week’s NATO summit in Warsaw, Israel’s outreach to Africa, and the trial in Iran over the ransacking of the Saudi embassy.
Iraqi PM Under Pressure after ISIS Atrocity
Hassan Mneimneh, MEI Scholar
Summary
For several years, Israeli-Saudi collaboration over regional geostrategy to check Iranian influence has been the worst kept secret in the Middle East since the advent of Israel’s robust nuclear arsenal. Still, public coordination has been taboo, and while indirect, and even direct, coordination may be taking place behind closed doors, no official relationships can develop. This, of course, is due to the history between the state of Israel and the Arab world.
Between the rise to power of the Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.) in the early 2000s and the eruption of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” approach to foreign policy seemed commendable. Today, however, Ankara’s foreign policy is perhaps best described as “zero neighbors without problems.” In response to the Arab uprisings of 2011, Ankara’s projection of primarily soft power has evolved into the embrace of hard power—most notably in Iraq and Syria.
Regional Cooperation Series
This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute’s Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry.
Summary
This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”
Philip Gordon, a former Middle East policy adviser in the White House, likes to say that President Barack Obama learned three lessons from the region’s unending turmoil.