Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Iran, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s efforts to push for dialogue after the Kurdish independence referendum, the pending indictment of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, signs of progress in the reconcilliation attempt between Hamas and Fatah, and the Saudi king’s visit to Moscow.

Prime Minister Modi’s 2015 visit to the U.A.E. and subsequent events have seen India’s view of the region undergo a fundamental shift. This essay, the first of two parts, shows how New Delhi has come to regard the Gulf more as a source of investment and less as a source of energy and visas; and has begun to take a more strategic and military view of the region.

The major components of President Donald Trump’s much-awaited Afghanistan strategy are sufficient to give Pakistani strategists sleepless nights. The new plan will acknowledge Pakistan’s significant role in providing safe havens for terrorists; escalate war against the Afghan Taliban while denying it the ability to fight its way into positions of power; and enhance India’s role in stabilizing and developing Afghanistan. Moreover, the strategy does not provide deadlines for withdrawal of U.S. forces.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, Alex Vatanka, and Bilal Y. Saab provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Iraqi military’s new operation to take back the town of Hawija from ISIS, the operation by the Syrian regime and U.S.-backed forces in Deir Ezzor, the Pakistani foreign minister’s visit to Iran, and the resumption of U.S. and Egyptian war games after being suspended since the 2011.

MEI experts Paul Salem, Will Wechsler, Marvin Weinbaum, and Ahmad Majidyar discuss current issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and U.S. policy and strategic interests in the region.

Al-Qaeda appears set to make a comeback in Pakistan, with battle-hardened militants returning from Syria and Iraq and eyeing for the resurrection of al-Qaeda in Pakistan.[i] A new terror group, Jamaat ul Ansar al-Shariah Pakistan, surfaced in June 2017, and is comprised of fighters who have returned from the Middle East.

Read the full article in The National Interest.

The following excerpt is from an interview with MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka conducted by J. Dana Stuster for Lawfare. Read the full conversation here.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.

Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow

Geopolitical maneuvering, political disunity, endemic corruption, rudderless security apparatus and, most importantly, a confident Taliban movement supported by the Pakistani “deep state” make Afghanistan the most persistent trouble spot. Recent events in the country are dominated by increasing terrorist attacks against security forces and hapless citizens.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

This essay examines the effects of the Saudi-Iran rivalry on Sunni-Shia relations in Pakistan. The essay shows that this rivalry, which has sectarian undertones and is partly responsible for the continuing Syrian civil war, has not only complicated Pakistan’s relations with Riyadh and Tehran but has exacerbated Sunni-Shia tensions domestically. Pakistan’s predicament has become even more complicated in light of the recent Trump-led Arab Islamic American Summit.

Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?

Unlikeliest of Allies

Since the government of Narendra Modi took office in 2014, India and the U.A.E. have moved relatively quickly to consolidate their existing ties and to explore new areas of cooperation. During this time, they have elevated the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, with the expressed intention of extending their cooperation to the security and defense spheres. This essay discusses these recent developments, with particular attention to the role of Pakistan as a constraining factor in India-U.A.E. relations going forward.