Bad policy advice could lead to a catastrophe for Iran’s public economy
Iran began the new fiscal year on March 21, 2022 having recorded an estimated GDP growth rate of about 4% over the previous year, but CPI has grown by 35% year-on-year. While GDP growth could be the result of the stabilization of the economy after several years of recession, a steady rate of high inflation is alarming for Iran’s economy.
هزینه سنگین حمایت حزب الله برای اقتصاد و امنیت ایران
در جمهوری اسلامی ایران, این فرضیه وجود دارد که حمایت از سازمان حزب الله در لبنان, امنیت و قدرت بازدارندگی ایران را افزایش داده است. در عین حال, شواهد و قرائنی وجود دارند که نتایج انان برعکس این فرضیه را نشان می دهند.
Iran, Turkey, and the future of the South Caucasus
Since late September 2021, Tehran and Baku have engaged in a process of de-escalation, largely focused on economic cooperation and regional transportation links. Such efforts should be welcomed, but underlying geopolitical tensions, especially the Iranian-Turkish competition for influence in the South Caucasus, can still derail them at any moment.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the Rising Cult of Mahdism: Missiles and Militias for the Apocalypse
As the U.S. administration considers whether to remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization, understanding its nature, development, and ideology is essential to making an informed decision. There is much about it that differentiates it from a conventional armed force. One fundamental aspect of its ideology that until now has been overlooked is the doctrine of Mahdism.
Iran is learning from Russia’s use of missiles in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned into the largest testing ground for ballistic and cruise missiles in modern warfare. Militaries around the world are watching carefully, and Iran is certainly no exception. With its military doctrine heavily dependent on ballistic missile forces, Iran has a particular interest in the war in Ukraine and is taking notes on Russia’s use of missiles.
We cannot ignore Syria’s emergence as a narco-state
Syria has emerged in recent years as a narco-state of regional and possibly global significance. Having destroyed much of the country, crippled the national economy, and reduced itself to pariah status, Syria’s regime and core components of its security apparatus have fronted a secretive industrial complex for the manufacture of a popular amphetamine known as Captagon.
Bringing loyalist and opposition factions together: The prospects for reconciliation in new Syria
Western visions for a post-war Syria often entail the creation of disarmament and reintegration programs oriented toward members of Islamist groups and militias. However, there is less discussion about how the legacies of state authoritarianism in regime-controlled or otherwise loyalist areas will likely hinder any type of post-war reconciliation.
Divided Syria: An examination of stabilization efforts and prospects for state continuity
The war in Syria started with a ferocious regime crackdown on nonviolent demonstrations but transformed rapidly into a hydra-headed conflict. Syrian citizens with Gulf support took up arms to defend themselves, extremists rushed in, Iran and its proxies upped the ante, and moderate and extremist opposition forces fought both with each other and regime.
Last month, members of Congress called on the Biden administration to address the eight-year-long humanitarian crisis at Rukban, a desolate informal displacement camp in the eastern Syria desert, just miles from the U.S.-led coalition base at the al-Tanf garrison (ATG). Since 2015, Syria, Jordan, Russia, and the United States have refrained from claiming responsibility for the camp, resulting in a protracted period of inaction with severe humanitarian consequences.
Putin in Palmyra: How Russia won the “truth” battle in Syria and learned lessons for Ukraine
Syria provided Putin with the perfect training ground for Ukraine. Russia is now using the same techniques that it first employed in Syria in its reporting of the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
«داعش» يتعافى في سوريا… لكن الحاجة ماسة إلى الاستقرار
عندما لقي تنظيم داعش الإقليمي الهزيمة في سوريا قبل أكثر من ثلاث سنوات، احتفل العالم بإنجاز تاريخي. فعلى مدار خمس سنوات، حشد تحالف ضم أكثر من 80 دولة موارده المشتركة لدحر «داعش» في سوريا والعراق، والتصدي للجماعة الإرهابية على الإنترنت، ودحر شبكاتها المالية والشركات التابعة لها المكتشفة حديثاً في جميع أنحاء العالم.
What would an Arab-Israeli military alliance mean for Iran?
In recent remarks, the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi announced preparations for a potential upcoming military operation, foreshadowing a possible move against Iran. Kochavi’s announcement came shortly after Israel and the foreign ministers of four Arab nations — Morocco, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain — along with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, met at the Negev Summit in the Israeli desert to lay the foundation for a strategic military alliance to deter “Iran and its associated militias,” as Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid put it.
