Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including next steps in the Syrian conflict de-escalation process, General Zinni’s mission to the Gulf, Qatari-Turkish relations, and crude oil informal cooperation.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, W. Robert Pearson, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Randa Slim weigh in on the implications of Israel-Palestinian violence for U.S. foreign policy, Turkish involvement in the Gulf crisis, al-Qaeda’s response to the U.S. decision to terminate support for a program arming anti-Assad Syrian rebels, confrontational U.S. policy towards the Iran nuclear deal, and a former Iraqi Prime Minister’s power play.

Living on the periphery of the tumultuous Middle East, Omanis do not take their security for granted. Oman has been free of violent unrest since the Sultanate crushed the Dhofar Rebellion in 1976. Yet Oman is situated in a dangerous neighborhood, and the Arab Gulf country is not immune to transregional threats.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, W. Robert Pearson, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on ISIS’ continued threat to security despite losing territory, President Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Sudan as a political calculation, and Mohammed Dahlan’s effort to return to Palestinian politics.

The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Turkey has become a critical conduit for international humanitarian operations and life-saving economic support to approximately three million Syrian refugees. Turkey’s decision to restrict various international NGOs from operating within its territory is now disrupting crucial provisions to those in both northern Syria, and inside its own borders.

After President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh last month, Iranian leaders were worried about the creation of a U.S.-supported alliance of regional Arab states led by Saudi Arabia to counter Irani

A fierce spat between Qatar and leading Arab nations could add another complication to the already strained relationship between the United States and Turkey. Ankara wants to calm the tension, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken by phone with the leaders of Qatar, Russia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to reduce tensions. He has also expedited legislation to deploy troops to Qatar as part of a military agreement signed in 2014. President Donald Trump, however, supports, and even takes credit for, the Saudi move to isolate its smaller neighbor.

June 1, 2017 – Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, joins host Gonul Tol for a discussion of the tensions in Turkey’s relations with Europe in the wake of the Turkish referendum and a recent meeting between President Erdogan and E.U. leaders.

In this week’s Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the beginning of the final phase of the battle to retake Mosul, Germany’s consideration for withdrawing troops from Turkey, and Qatar’s fragile relations within the G.C.C.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet President Donald Trump as a frustrated and disappointed man. His hopes for a clean slate after strained relations with President Barack Obama have been dashed as Trump has endorsed his predecessor’s policies against key Turkish demands. Importantly, Trump last week approved an Obama era plan to arm Syrian Kurds in preparation for the upcoming battle to retake Raqqa from ISIS.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Randa Slim, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Mabrouka M’Barek provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s upcoming meeting with Russian President Putin, the upcoming speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah, the suprising popularity of Rouhani’s VP in the Iranian Presidential Race, the Taliban’s new Spring offensive, and protests in Tunisia over a government proposal to give amnesty to the country’s corrupt financial elite.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the victory of Turkish President Erdogan’s “Yes” constitutional referendum campaign to increase his powers, Secretary of Defense Mattis’ trip to the Middle East, the entry of 1,600 candidates for the upcoming Iranian presidential elections, and the alarming violence in Pakistan against accused “blasphemers”.

On Sunday, Turks will decide their political fate for decades to come. If President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins, he will reach a new pinnacle in a remarkable career to solidify his unchallengeable rule in Turkey, and cement his role to rival that of Ataturk in modern Turkish history. He will still not be fully satisfied with a victory, if it comes. He will go on to use the win as a platform for securing an historic legacy to guide the Turkish state for the years ahead.