Research & Commentary Results

Even if we assume that there is goodwill between the U.S. and Iran to improve relations, the power of algorithms will place major stumbling blocks in the way of efforts toward future normalization. A priori programming of foreign policy options and lines of argument have led to immutable algorithms causing the relationship between the two countries to calcify. On both sides, the key personalities who define national security, interpret events, and shape policies toward one another have had virtually no direct contact or experiences with each other’s country. They interpret events, extract meanings, react to one another, and delineate policies through prisms, images, metaphors, binaries, groupthink, and in the lexicon of artificial intelligence, algorithms.

The announcement of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), a 25 year-long economic and development agreement between China and Iran, has immediately added to the intensifying discourse concerning US-China Geostrategic Competition. Nonetheless, a closer look at its implications suggests that it may be useful in achieving some U.S. goals with Iran: particularly regime modernization.

“يبدو أن كل شيء له علاقة بالمؤتمر في تركيا مازال مُعلقًا”.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

“يبدو الحفاظ على النسخة الأصلية من “خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة” هو أفضل السُبُل لروسيا لمواءمة هذه الاعتبارات الثلاثة”.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

“بينما تعد ندرة المياه في إيران وبقية دول الشرق الأوسط مشكلة طويلة الأمد، فإن بعض الجهود للتعامل معها تبدو محاولات يائسة ولم يتم التخطيط لها دائمًا بعناية”.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Iran and Iraq are frequently at odds over water issues. Iraq depends on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for nearly all of its water. But Iran is building dams to redivert some of that water, causing alarm and creating major water shortages for Iraq.

Despite the importance of cyberattacks, little has been written about the relationship between these attacks and the applicable law. States are still struggling with controversies involving definitions, even though there is wide applicability of both laws and norms in this context. As a result, cyberspace remains relatively anarchic and the continued controversies have impeded further progress. Although the global discussion has only just begun, it is clear that the rising prevalence of state-led cyber operations warrants a thoughtful, innovative, and immediate regulatory response. Pressure has been building on the governments of the Middle East to join the conversation as their relevance and power in the cyber domain grows.

Around the world, leaders are scrambling to define their strategy for dealing with the inevitable U.S.-China cold war to come, and the Gulf is no exception. Considering the different objectives and perspectives that the region has in regard to the two superpowers, any misstep in forming alliances could be detrimental to its future.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Alex Vatanka joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss the future of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the branch of the Iranian military charged with safeguarding the Islamic Republic, and its proxy warfare strategy.