Research & Commentary Results

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including the Turkish-U.S. crisis meeting in Ankara on Syria, the resumption of U.S.-Taliban negotiations, Trump’s creation of a new “dovish” line on Iran, a rise in Egypt’s poverty levels, Sudan’s democratic transition, the easing of female guardianship rules in Saudi Arabia, and the end of the ceasefire in Idlib, featuring Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Paul Salem, W. Robert Pearson, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Thomas W. Lippman, and Robert S. Ford.

The UAE is reducing its military presence in Yemen and redeploying its forces. This news has spread rapidly, prompting many questions about what it could mean for the continuation or possible conclusion of the war in Yemen. However, the move will not affect the whole country equally.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including Kazakhstan’s upcoming “Astana talks” on Syria, Jared Kushner’s planned visit to the Middle East, the shift in US-Pakistan relations, and Abbas’ announcement that the Palestinian Authority will halt all signed agreements with Israel, featuring Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Khaled Elgindy.

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to draw down its troops in Yemen has led to cautious hope in the war-torn country. Fatima Abo Alasrar, senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation; Katherine Zimmerman, AEI research fellow and research manager for AEI’s Critical Threats Project; and Jerry Feierstein, MEI senior vice president and former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what the drawdown means on the ground and what ramifications the move might have.

Many of the divisions in the Arab World today are ideological and revolve around narratives — carefully constructed ontological representations of both how the world works and how it is supposed to work conforming to clearly set out interests and values. While the old sectarian narratives might still play an underlying role, what divides Arabs from Morocco to Oman are different grand-strategic visions of the region’s future after the Arab Spring.

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has been decimated by eight years of civil war. Defections, deaths, and a lack of funding have gutted its ranks while heavy losses of armored vehicles have significantly reduced the mechanized capabilities of what was once the sixth-largest armor fleet in the world. The inability of Damascus to fully deploy its official army led to the rise of paramilitary militias and an influx of pro-regime foreign fighters. This report explores the causes of the collapse of the SAA and its attempted rebirth, and ends with a detailed examination of its current order of battle.

Although Syria’s civil war has largely wound down, fighting in Idlib in the country’s northwest has heated up in the last two months. Charles Lister, MEI senior fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, executive director and co-founder of People Demand Change, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the ongoing conflict and what impact it might have on Syria’s future.

The idea of establishing a Levant Union — one not unlike the European Union (EU), but composed of the Levantine states of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Jordan, and by extension, Egypt and Cyprus — is one that ought to be explored. Such an arrangement would offer untapped potential for trade, supported by the growing trend toward greater regionalization, fueled by the rise in protectionism, increasing multipolarity, and corporate regionalization.

Reports that the UAE, a key member of the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, has decided to draw down and reposition its troops should be welcomed and taken seriously. It is not a small or symbolic move, but rather a serious, strategic, and thoughtful military and political decision. If reciprocated by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, it could serve as the long-awaited breakthrough in the five-year-old Yemen war.

A reliable supply of freshwater is a prerequisite for sustainable socioeconomic development, as well as for sociopolitical stability and human prosperity, especially in semi-arid and arid regions of the world. The Middle East and North Africa’s freshwater resources are under immense pressures and are facing significant risks to their sustainability due to overexploitation, climate change, and interstate competition over their use that extends beyond the region’s boundaries.

Traditionally, Syria has not been a strategic priority for China. Nor is it today. However, this does not mean that Beijing has been indifferent to the wide-ranging adverse effects of Syria’s disastrous civil war or to the opportunities that its postwar rebuilding might present. China’s Syria policy derives from its broader security and economic interests in the region. Accordingly, China’s two primary policy aims are 1) maintaining a constructive relationship with a government in Damascus that is stable, friendly, and capable of preventing the spread of transnational jihadist activity from its territory; and 2) developing an economic partnership that is compatible with and in furtherance of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This article examines how China has pursued these aims during the eight-year Syrian conflict.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Mirette F. Mabrouk, Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Egypt’s engagement with Africa to boost trade and investment, the reshuffling of leadership of Syria’s security apparatus, the firing of Turkey’s central bank governor, and Russia’s positioning to act as mediator between Iran and the Gulf states.

Violence has been flaring up at an alarming rate in the southern Syrian province of Daraa, amid dozens of unclaimed attacks by gunmen. Over the last three months, assassinations, checkpoint attacks, fires, and sporadic clashes have wreaked havoc in the area and signaled a potential return of conflict. 

One hallmark of Sudan’s most recent protests has been the protestors’ fierce determination that the military not be their partner in the struggle for democratization. Some GCC states, however, are getting involved in Sudan, using their financial means to influence the country’s future. In doing so, they risk making it the Arab world’s next theater for intra-GCC rivalry.

International attention on the Yemen conflict remains focused heavily on the humanitarian dimensions of the crisis, Saudi-Iranian competition for advantage there, and the UN’s fitful efforts to return the parties to the negotiating table. But another aspect of the conflict may have more significant long-term consequences for both Yemenis and the international community: the declining relevance of Sana’a at the center of a unified Yemeni state and the increasing local autonomy in large parts of the country.