Research & Commentary Results

Shamila Chaudhary, Michael Kugelman, and Marvin Weinbaum join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the political situation in Afghanistan following the expiration of President Ashraf Ghani’s term in office, presidential elections in September, the state of US-Taliban talks and the intra-Afghan dialogue.

As Turkey aims to expand its influence throughout the Sunni Muslim world, President Erdoğan is playing up the historic ties and strategic partnership between Turkey and Pakistan. It remains to be seen, however, if this alliance will evolve beyond mere symbolism.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Zubair Iqbal, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Robert S. Ford, and Rauf Mammadov provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran with Iraq caught in between, Jared Kushner’s economic development plan for Palestinians, the IMF’s bailout deal with Pakistan, political turmoil ahead of the Afghan presidential election, developments in the Egyptian media landscape following recent constitutional amendments, debate over how to approach elections in Algeria, and the impact of US-Iran tensions on the oil market.

The March 31st local elections in Turkey were a breath of fresh air for those long resigned to the fact that the ballot box doesn’t matter anymore and that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was invincible. To the surprise of many, the opposition captured all of Turkey’s major cities, but the decision by the Supreme Election Council on May 6th to nullify the results of the Istanbul mayoral election and call for a new vote quickly changed the mood. The election is now set to be rerun on June 23rd.

Building up Turkey’s defense industry has long been a priority for the government, and it has made considerable progress. Turkey is now the world’s 14th largest defense exporter. Despite its success to date, the industry is facing growing pains, and challenges like brain drain, a currency crisis, dependence on foreign suppliers, and regional political disputes could hamper growth going forward.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Robert S. Ford, Jonathan M. Winer, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the sabotage this weekend of four ships off the coast of the UAE, the recent escalation of fighting in northwestern Syria, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Libya, and mounting concerns about Turkey’s economic health.

U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad is holding talks with the Afghan Taliban to make sure the guns fall silent in Afghanistan. But getting the Taliban to agree on a ceasefire and engage in an intra-Afghan dialogue is severely testing Khalilzad’s negotiating skills; the fifth round of talks in Doha lasted for 16 days. If the intra-Afghan dimension cannot be made to work, it will likely lead to not only a more complicated political process, but also a far more dangerous one.

The recent arrest in Turkey of two suspects accused of spying for the United Arab Emirates highlights the growing divide between the two countries. Although the original cause of the rift – diverging views of the Muslim Brotherhood – has become less relevant in recent years, the enmity between the two nations endures.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Ruba Husari, Guney Yildiz, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and John Calabrese provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the failure of the twelfth rounds of Syria peace talks in Astana, negotiations over Yemen’s strategic port of Hodeida, a new report on Iraq’s oil production potential, ongoing US-Turkey talks about a buffer zone in Syria, Egypt’s recently passed constitutional amendments, and Beijing’s second Belt and Road Forum.

The rise of ISIS post-2013 changed how we perceive jihadism, but it also transformed how jihadists perceive themselves and how they behave. ISIS’s brutality and indiscriminate violence created unprecedented fragmentation within the jihadi movement, leading to critical self-reflection and changes in codes of conduct. This paper examines how three different jihadi groups – the Afghan Taliban, al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-Continent, and Tehreek- e-Taliban Pakistan (or the Pakistani Taliban) – responded to the challenges presented by ISIS.

Peace talks are predicated on the notion that the Taliban have fundamentally changed. They haven’t.

Former US Ambassador to Turkey W. Robert Pearson and Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Turkey’s March local elections, in which the long-ruling AK party faced significant setbacks, and where Turkey’s economic challenges and strained foreign relations stand today.

Iran’s huge hydrocarbons reserves and Turkey’s growing demand for oil and gas seem to suggest great potential for energy collaboration. US sanctions and pricing disputes, however, limit and complicate the prospects of such a partnership.

The Eurasianist (Ulusalcı in Turkish) ideology, which originated from the far-left movement in Turkey, espouses an anti-Western approach in foreign policy and ultranationalist sentiment in domestic politics. They contend that Turkey’s interests lie outside the Western world and that Turkey should join the Russia- and China-led “anti-imperialist” camp. This article examines the rise, shortcomings and failures of the Eurasianist approach in Turkish foreign policy.

According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.