Research & Commentary Results

Iran announced last week it had developed one of the world’s most promising COVID-19 vaccines. The news appeared to be part of Tehran’s efforts to satisfy domestic demands for a safe vaccine and to show the country is launching its vaccine rollout independently, despite the crippling economic sanctions imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

“رغم أن الولايات المُتحدة عادت للمسار الدبلوماسي مع إيران، إلا أن إصرار طهران على انتهاك الاتفاق النووي، وتطوير قدراتها العسكرية الخطيرة، سيؤدي فقط إلى زيادة عزلة إيران”.

The Lebanese Hezbollah has long been one of the Middle East’s most dangerous actors, and it has deeply embedded itself in Lebanon’s political system and economy. The Middle East Institute’s Bilal Saab details the different relationships the group has with various Lebanese constituencies and explains why some might begin to fray in the months to come.

With the increasingly heavy burdens of everyday life, May 2022 may feel like an eternity away in Lebanon. Next spring, however, marks a high-stakes milestone and reality check for the country’s domestic politics. Absent any major surprises, eligible Lebanese citizens at home and in the diaspora will cast their votes in the first general elections since the October 2019 uprising, the financial collapse, and the Beirut port explosion. In fact, the process has already started with the issuance of electoral rolls. But there’s a catch — Lebanese politics are full of surprises.

For years, Lebanon has suffered from chronic electricity shortages, and repeated attempts to resolve the crisis have failed. None have been able to surmount the political impasse that blocks every reform effort in the country.

The tiny Persian Gulf country of Qatar has chosen a herculean task for itself: to mediate between the United States and Iran. As Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani put it on Feb. 10, Doha “is working on de-escalation through a political and diplomatic process.” To this end, al-Thani recently spoke to U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and U.S. Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley. 

Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen are expected to continue to destabilize the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2021. However, technology will likely add another layer of complexity to these conflicts and reshape the region throughout the 2020s. When the Arab Spring began a decade ago, the biggest challenge facing long-standing Arab autocrats was grappling with the power of social media and the rise of online political opposition by tech-savvy millennial activists. In the 2020s, however, regional governments are now facing a new set of emerging technologies that will shape not only domestic politics but also regional geopolitical dynamics. These advancing technologies include: drone, cyber, and space technologies.

Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.

The big question remains how the Lebanese can hit the reset button. How can they overhaul a system that still enjoys the support of a large swath of Lebanese society and has so many powerful political backers both at home and abroad?

The cold-blooded assassination of Hezbollah critic and Lebanese activist Lokman Slim on Feb. 4 is yet another manifestation of Iran’s growing boldness in the country. Hoping it can once again get away with murder, Iran is mobilizing its repressive proxy in Lebanon and across the region. The question of Hezbollah’s future is key for regional stability and for the U.S. and its partners. As the U.S. prepares to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, curbing the country’s regional ambitions — including its provision of military and political assistance to Hezbollah — needs to be an integral part of any new deal.

Paul Goble, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the role of Russia, Turkey, and Iran in the South Caucasus.

Lebanon and its citizens have endured many hardships in recent years. Two dimensions of Lebanon’s condition today are especially striking, however, and augur more difficult times ahead. First, Lebanon has become just another pauperized and increasingly militarized Arab country whose citizens rebel against state authorities. Simultaneously, the regional and international powers that once engaged in it for their own purposes seem less interested in saving it from its self-inflicted decline. 

The news coming out of Iran does not paint a pretty picture of its economy. Economic mismanagement, widespread corruption, weak legal and institutional capacity, and unfavorable business regulations, alongside the unprecedented U.S. financial and economic sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, have been choking the Iranian economy. However, with a population of 85 million, half under the age of 30 and highly educated, as well as a strategic location on the Persian Gulf and vast reserves of energy and other natural resources, including wind and solar energy, Iran’s economy has incredible potential waiting to be unlocked.

Since its founding the IRGC has evolved into a significant military and financial player in Iran. Khatam al-Anbiya, its construction arm, gets funding from the government for all kinds of major building projects. It is particularly actively in water management projects, like dam construction and water transfer schemes, and it forms a key part of Iran’s “Water Mafia.”

The normalization processes are deeply significant to the balance between Israel and Iran.