Research & Commentary Results

Muqtada al-Sadr will maintain close relations with Iran and wants the United States to withdraw all its troops from Iraq and the Middle East, a top aide to the Iraqi cleric was quoted as saying in an 

The way forward in Afghanistan seems as unclear as it has ever been. An outright military victory against the Taliban and other insurgent groups appears to be unachievable. The prospect of insurgents overrunning the country soon appears similarly unlikely. At the same time, a negotiated peace seems presently improbable. At least on terms outlined by the Kabul government and international community, the Taliban shows little interest in reconciliation.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, Jean-François Seznec, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Europe’s scramble to salvage the Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response to Russia’s call for all foreign forces to leave Syria, a meeting by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia to discuss the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran, the arrest of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia, new political tensions in Pakistan, a push in the U.S.

Firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s surprising lead in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections has raised alarm in Tehran. The Iranian press expressed the concern that Sadr would seek to undercut the Islamic Republic’s influence in Iraq by marginalizing Iran’s allies and allowing regional Sunni countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to make inroads into Iraqi politics and economy at the expense of Tehran’s interests.

Amb. Lukman Faily, Iraq’s ambassador to the United States from 2013-2016, and Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, join host Paul Salem to analyze the results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections and their implications for Iraq, the region, and U.S. policy going forward.

As Lebanon holds its first parliamentary elections in nine years and Iraq paves a way forward in the aftermath of the war against ISIS, many questions remain as to what the political future holds for both countries. The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 6, and in Iraq on May 12, serve as a barometer for transparency, inclusion, and the political realities in both countries. The polls have raised pressing political and governance issues such as how to overcome sectarianism, corruption, and economic stagnation in order to encourage further openness and plurality.
 

As Iraqis are heading to the polls on Saturday to vote in the country’s parliamentary elections, the Fateh Alliance, a coalition dominated by Iranian-backed militia groups, is confident that it will win sufficient parliamentary seats to choose the country’s next prime minister. Abu Ala al-Wa’eli, the commander of Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, a militia unit within the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) and part of the Fateh Alliance, said the alliance has not nominated anyone to become the next prime minister but will play the kingmaker in the post-election government formation process.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s decision on whether to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, what this weekend’s election results in Lebanon indicate about Hezbollah’s standing in the country, and expectations for the outcome of Iraq’s elections on May 12.

Nabil Musa learned how to swim and fish in the Tanjero River in the city of Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. The Tanjero eventually joins the Tigris River, which, together with the Euphrates River, gave life to Mesopotamia.

With Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections nearing, the coalition of Iranian-supported militia groups called Fateh Alliance is confident that it can translate its military gains into a political victory by either winning the premiership or playing kingmaker in the post-election government formation process, according to Tasnim News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Since the ratification of Iraq’s constitution in 2005, Iraq has struggled to interpret clauses 111 and 112, which stipulate that oil is the property of the Iraqi people and its revenues should be shared equitably. Several draft laws on hydrocarbon management, energy sector regulation, and oil revenue distribution have remained stalled because of differences between the federal government and the Kurdistan region over the interpretation of those clauses.

Fifteen years after the fall of the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq is still engaged in the process of transitioning to a system of governance representative of its population. The new Iraq has experienced meaningful progress and serious setbacks. While the upcoming elections, slated for May, promise a further constructive push, Iraq faces serious structural impediments to progress—including a divisive political environment and significant social challenges in the wake of ISIS—and should expect incremental rather than revolutionary change.

A prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia group has said that its forces will stand by the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria to defend it against any attacks by the United States and its allies.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian paid a one-day visit to Tehran on Monday to discuss Iran’s controversial missile program and regional activities. Iranian leaders told the top French diplomat that European countries should put pressure on the Trump administration to keep and implement that Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.

Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Organization, has said that an alliance of Shiite militia forces that fought against the Islamic State will now shift attention to politics and will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In an interview with the Lebanese al-Mayadeen TV, Amiri said that the Fateh Alliance, a coalition of Iranian-supported Shiite units within the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), will take an active part in the elections and expressed the hope that it can play a major role in the next government.