Research & Commentary Results

The current Syrian ceasefire effort of Russia and Turkey is a Russian attempt to impose a final political defeat on the rebels and a Turkish attempt to focus on eliminating the Kurds in Syria militarily and politically. Turkey is also intensely lobbying the new U.S. administration for help. The ceasefire deal rests on the barbarism of Russia and the Assad regime and the feckless response of the West. This is the peace Rome imposed on the prostrate Carthage. The unanimous UNSC vote endorsing the Russian/Turkish proposal enshrines one side’s brutality and the other’s moral vacuum.

The Turkish foreign minister has openly urged Iran to “play its role as an underwriter of the ceasefire in Syria.” Mevlut Cavusoglu specifically demanded that Tehran rein in Shiite militiamen and the Lebanese Hezbollah and make them “stop violating” the ceasefire in Syria that was agreed on December28.

The Middle East’s descent into chaos has been accompanied by a growing threat to the region’s historic sites. The breakdown of states and growth in extremism have exposed these ancient sites to looting and destruction. The drivers, however, are varied. Extremist groups like ISIS profit from the smuggling of antiquities, but there are also religious motivations. Extremist movements such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, which adhere to a strictly puritanical view of Islam, perceive heritage sites, including Islamic, as a sinful distraction from faith.

Tehran’s unwavering support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad continues to irk the Turks, according to press reports. On December 16, the Turkish prime minister, Binali Yildirim, and Iran’s vice president, Eshaq Jahangiri, spoke on the phone. The discussion was ostensibly about Jahangiri’s upcoming visit to Turkey, but also focused on the Syrian civil war.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Herman Franssen, Charles Lister, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including OPEC’s agreement to reduce oil output, the continuing offensive in Aleppo, Erdogan’s increasing executive powers, and deteriorating relations between Pakistan and India.

OPEC Deal a Win for Iran
Herman Franssen, MEI Scholar

The question of whether Islamist groups are compatible with democracy has been a topic of serious discussion for some time, especially considering the claims that Islamists have structural impediments when it comes to adapting to various social and political contexts.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s November 29 remark that Turkey intervened in Syria to topple President Bashar al-Assad has drawn a sharp rebuke from Tehran, Damascus and Moscow.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the vulnerabilities in Trump’s Middle East policy, Russia’s plan in Syria after Trump’s election, and Erdogan’s hopes for Gulen’s extradition under the next administration.

In this special edition of our weekly briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, Eran Etzion, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on the impact of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. Presidential Election on the future of Middle East policy, its particular effect on the crises in Iraq and Syria, and how the news has been received across the region, including in Turkey, Iran, and the GCC.

This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”

Summary

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

Tensions between Turkey and Russia are thawing, as both countries appear to be advancing reconciliation efforts. Beginning with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s apology to Russian President Vladimir Putin for downing a Russian jet last year, the nations have shown a political will to cultivate closer cooperation in Syria. But the question remains—how far can the rapprochement in Syria go?

This article was originally published by The Ambassadors Review and the Council of American Ambasadors (CAA) and can be found here.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, Charles Lister, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including potential fallout from the battle for Mosul, how the row between Turkey and Iraq will complicate the operations in Mosul, the implications of ISIS’ loss of Dabiq, and recent military cooperation between Egypt and Russia.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has expressed outrage at the recent Turkish parliamentary extension of the mandate of Turkey’s military presence on Iraqi soil. For months, Turkish forces have maintained a contingent in northern Iraq, ostensibly at the invitation of local forces, with the announced mission of training them in preparation for the battle for Mosul. With multiple parties preparing for the offensive, Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, is slated to be liberated from a 30-month-old Islamic State (ISIS) occupation.