Research & Commentary Results

It’s been nearly three years since the Turkish incursion into northern Syria in August 2016, but one central question remains unanswered: What is Ankara’s plan for the area now under its control? This paper examines the complex relationship between local governance and service provision in the Euphrates Shield (ES) area of north Aleppo and the Turkish state. Using secondary sources and interviews with Syrian and Turkish activists and officials, this paper establishes that, first and foremost, Turkey has no coherent policy with regards to local governance in ES.

In May, the European Council adopted the 2018 iteration of the EU Annual Report on Human Rights and Democracy in the World. Promoting human rights has long been a priority for the EU, but in practice the bloc is selective about the human rights violations its analyzes, especially when it comes to the Middle East.

In theory, Sunday’s election is over who will be the next mayor of Istanbul, but in reality it’s about something much bigger: The survival of democracy in Turkey.

Istanbulites are only few days away from delivering their verdict on who will run the city for the next five years. The June 23rd election marks the second time in the last three months that local voters will choose their mayor, and the stakes are high for both sides.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s announcement that it will increase uranium enrichment, Istanbul’s upcoming mayoral election, potential leadership shifts in Tehran, and a rise in political tensions following Pakistan’s anti-corruption crackdown.

The territorial defeat of ISIS in March 2019 was a significant victory in the fight against terrorism, but the struggle to defeat violent extremism is far from over. Ambassador Edmund Fitton-Brown and Charles Lister join guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the latest developments in policy to combat regional terrorist threats.

The growing power of paramilitary groups and the response of Bashar al-Assad’s foreign backers illustrates how local skirmishes over smuggling routes can have much broader geopolitical implications as Russia gains ground at the expense of both the regime and Iran.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including military developments in Syria’s northwest, the confirmation of David Schenker as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and the approval of amendments to laws regulating Egypt’s judiciary.

The recent European elections are the latest wake up call to the left. If it wants to counter rising radical right wing populism, it has to shift its agenda from questions of identity to politics centered on creating broad economic equality. Turkey’s left should draw a lesson from the European experience. Instead of fighting the cultural war against Islamists and Kurds, it should connect with the country’s “left behind” and adopt an agenda focused on addressing the country’s economic woes.

Sometime in June the UN Security Council will vote to approve another six-month renewal of the mandate of the 1000-strong UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) deployed in the Golan Heights. For more than four decades, the UN Security Council has unanimously renewed the mission’s mandate to maintain the ceasefire between Israel and Syria, but this will be the first time it has come up for a vote since President Donald Trump signed a proclamation recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the area of the Golan Heights on March 25th.

As fighting rages across the last opposition-held province of Idlib, the war in Syria has reached its brutal endgame. The Syrian army’s offensive, launched in early May, will not be quick, but rather marks the start of what will likely be a prolonged, violent, and ultimately costly campaign. If the first few weeks of the operation are anything to go by, resistance will be fierce — fiercer than initially expected — and as the world’s attention shifts toward Idlib, the stakes are now higher than ever.

MEI’s Randa Slim and Paul Salem join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the Institute’s conflict resolution program and how Track II diplomacy—or unofficial meetings between adversarial groups—has supplemented state-to-state diplomacy and become a transformative experience for many of its participants.

Approximately 10,000-20,000 Afghan men, mostly from the Hazara ethnic group, have fought in Syria in support of the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Organized by Iran and led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other affiliated groups, they have gathered under the banner of the so-called “Fatemiyoun” Division. This is the story of one of those men, Mohammed Jalil Dinsta, told through selections from his writings, alongside relevant analysis.

As Turkey aims to expand its influence throughout the Sunni Muslim world, President Erdoğan is playing up the historic ties and strategic partnership between Turkey and Pakistan. It remains to be seen, however, if this alliance will evolve beyond mere symbolism.

The March 31st local elections in Turkey were a breath of fresh air for those long resigned to the fact that the ballot box doesn’t matter anymore and that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was invincible. To the surprise of many, the opposition captured all of Turkey’s major cities, but the decision by the Supreme Election Council on May 6th to nullify the results of the Istanbul mayoral election and call for a new vote quickly changed the mood. The election is now set to be rerun on June 23rd.