Research & Commentary Results

Idlib is currently the site of increasing competition between the two most dominant armed coalitions, the al-Qaeda-linked Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.) and Ahrar al-Sham. The province has witnessed limited airstrikes since a de-escalation agreement, which came into effect on May 5, was brokered by Russia, Turkey, and Iran at the Astana talks. Idlib was one of four areas labeled as a de-escalation zone.

With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.

Israel and Hezbollah have recently raised the profile of their long quiescent front across the Blue Line border. Warnings have increased that a conflict will soon engulf Lebanon, and perhaps even draw in the United States. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to attack Israel’s nuclear reactor at Dimona and Israeli chemical installations in Haifa.

On Sunday, the Iranian military said it had launched six missiles at Islamic State positions in Syria in retaliation for the June 7 attacks in Tehran claimed by the terrorist group. A statement by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) confirmed that it fired medium-range missiles from bases in the western Iranian provinces of Kermanshah and Kurdistan and killed a “large number” of Islamic State terrorists in Syria’s Deir Az Zour province.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on eastern Syria as a new hotbed of geopolitical competition, Iranian responses to the Islamic State attack, additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and renewed Saudi succession speculation.

Russia’s claim to have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in Raqqa on May 28 should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. At the time in question, the U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) were only days away from launching their final assault on the city and there’s no logical reason imaginable why Baghdadi would have risked staying in a surrounded, sitting target. Notwithstanding justified doubts surrounding Baghdadi’s then presence in Raqqa, Russia’s statement also says its strike killed another 330 ISIS fighters – which is almost certainly an absurd claim.

Iranian-supported Shiite militia forces in Iraq and Syria have finally linked up along the shared border between the two countries, Fars News Agency reports.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Turkey has become a critical conduit for international humanitarian operations and life-saving economic support to approximately three million Syrian refugees. Turkey’s decision to restrict various international NGOs from operating within its territory is now disrupting crucial provisions to those in both northern Syria, and inside its own borders.

Six months after the heavily publicized defeat of Syrian rebel forces in Aleppo to the Assad government, the once magnificent metropolis and largest city of northern Syria is still reeling from the consequences of years of violent conflict. The elaborate communal, economic and material threads that for centuries had made up the social fabric underpinning the city’s wealth, as well as its physical and societal integrity, may have been irreparably damaged. Today, much of the city lies in rubble and many of its once proud inhabitants have been reduced to abject poverty.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Robert S. Ford, Alex Vatanka, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on  the Trump administration’s handling of the G.C.C. crisis, how Iran and energy markets have responded to it, and the escalating conflict in eastern Syria.

Iranian-led Afghan Shiite militia forces have made significant territorial gains in southeastern Syria and have reached the shared border between Syria and Iraq, the Iranian media reports.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani hailed the latest military gains by the Syrian army and its allies and reiterated Tehran’s continued support to Damascus in a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad earlier today. The Iranian president also condemned the latest U.S. strikes against pro-Damascus forces in southeastern Syria as a violation of international law.

The U.S.-led coalition announced today that it “destroyed additional pro-Syrian regime forces that advanced inside the well-established de-confliction zone in southern Syria.” The U.S.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Israel’s expected announcement of new settlement expansion, the escalating risk of a clash between U.S.-backed and pro-Iranian forces in southeastern Syria, and Lebanon’s efforts to pass a reformed election law.