Research & Commentary Results

December 4, 2017- The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation were pleased to host MEI’s 8th Annual Conference on Turkey. At a time of critical internal developments and international tensions, this program of three panels on Turkey’s domestic politics, economy, and foreign relations featured Turkish, European, and U.S. office-holders, policymakers, and expert analysts from both sides of the Atlantic.

From mixed signals over U.S. policy toward Syria’s Kurds, to an alleged kidnapping plot involving Michael Flynn, to the implication of President Erdogan in an international corruption scheme, U.S.-Turkey relations have struggled to find solid ground. Nicholas Danforth, senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, and Gonul Tol, director of Turkish studies at the Middle East Institute, join host Paul Salem to explain these stories and what they mean for both countries.

Summary

In an attempt to build up its air defense systems, Turkey is finalizing a deal to purchase the Russian S-400 weapons system. Ankara’s decision is in part a response to the threat posed by Russian involvement in Syria. Turkey is hoping that cultivating closer ties with Moscow might remove Russia as a threat. But, as this paper illustrates, the deal fails to address Turkey’s security concerns, further alienates its NATO allies, while providing Moscow more leverage over Ankara.

Mohammad Mohaqeq, a deputy chief executive of Afghanistan, has come under fire at home after he praised the role of Iran and its regional proxies in the Syrian conflict. Speaking at a conference in Tehran last week, Mohaqeq congratulated Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, for the “victory” against ISIS. But what particularly triggered angry reactions in Afghanistan was Mohaqeq’s praise for Afghan Shiite militias, known as the Fatemiyoun Division, who are fighting in Syria under Soleimani’s leadership.

With ISIS militarily defeated in Syria and Iraq, the Fatemiyoun Division, an all-Afghan Afghan Shiite militia group fighting in Syria, says its fighters will join the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia groups to fight Israel next.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Arab League meeting in Cairo to moderate the Saudi-Iran escalation, Iran’s view of the Sochi Summit as a turning point, Putin’s effort to reach an agreement on Syria before presidential elections, Afghanistan’s response to the increase of US troops on their ground, and the political upheaval in Israel as Netanyahu’s corruption case continues.

The war in Afghanistan has dragged on for 16 years, appearing to many Americans to have no end in sight or positive outcome. However, as Defense Secretary James Mattis recently testified, “Violence and progress in Afghanistan continue to coexist.” What is that progress, and what does it mean for Afghans themselves? Saad Mohseni, chairman and CEO of Moby Media Group, and Ahmad Majidyar, director of MEI’s IranObserved project, join host Paul Salem to discuss the positive changes taking place in the country.

Qatar is Turkey’s closest ally in the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) and, since 2011, Ankara has become Doha’s most important regional ally. From Syria to Libya, the Qataris and Turks have worked in tandem to pursue shared interests, chiefly via support for Islamist non-state actors. More than four months into the G.C.C. crisis, Ankara has played a pivotal role in assisting Qatar weather the blockade imposed by a quartet of Arab countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.).

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Paul Salem, Ruba Husari, Amal Kandeel, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the arrests of numerous prominent Saudi government officials and leading businessmen on charges of corruption, Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri’s resignation, oil prices in the Middle East hitting new highs, the threat to MENA due to rising temperature levels in the region, and the Turkish prime minister’s visit to Washington.

Read the full article on War on the Rocks

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Turkey on Wednesday to discuss potential joint steps against northern Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) following last month’s independence referendum. Ankara is hoping to influence Iraqi politics by cultivating close ties to Baghdad, but the newly forged Turkish-Iraqi alliance is unlikely to hold, leaving Turkey isolated in the post-referendum Iraq. 

Wars in MENA are causing irreparable damage to water security and resilience to climate change in some of the region’s countries and to their viability. The continuation of this dangerous state could ultimately reinforce even deeper instability in MENA.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Secretary Tillerson’s visit to Riyadh and Doha as well as his visit to India and Pakistan, Abadi’s regional tour to promote positive relations with neighbors, Sisi’s visit to Paris to boost Egypt-France relations , and German Chancellor Merkel’s threat to cut European Union funding to Turkey due to its crackdown on democratic institutions.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed U.S. ambassador to Turkey, John Bass, for a diplomatic crisis between the two countries. The spat erupted when Turkey arrested a Turkish employee of the U.S. consulate on suspicion of links to the group blamed for last year’s failed coup. In response, the United States stopped issuing visitor visas from its missions in Turkey, prompting Turkish missions to hit back with tit-for-tat steps of their own.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, Marvin G.