De-Russification: Understanding the trajectory and reversibility of Armenia’s Western pivot
The question of whether Armenia’s recent shift away from reliance on Russia is reversible is central to understanding its democratization trajectory. In recent years, Armenia’s dependency on Russia for security and economic stability has been severely tested, particularly during the 2020 Second Karabakh War and subsequent Azerbaijani incursions on sovereign Armenian territory, where Russia’s lack of support led to widespread disillusionment. This discontent has spurred Armenia to diversify its security, economic, and diplomatic ties, with a notable strengthening of relations with the United States. However, the sustainability of this shift remains uncertain, as it hinges on various societal factors and internal dynamics.
Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks: The status quo and an emerging diplomatic breakthrough
Azerbaijan’s takeover of Karabakh in September 2023, while a disruptive event, has opened the window for renewed dialogue to peacefully resolve the longstanding tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the ongoing negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive peace deal in the near term, they could alter the strategic calculus of key actors in the region. The most likely and consequential outcome of the talks will be a peace framework agreement that could rebalance the regional status quo, potentially leading to a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s green shift: Energy transition, COP29 commitments, and US collaboration
Azerbaijan seeks to establish itself as a major actor in the global energy transition space as it prepares to host the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, on November 11-22. COP29 offers many opportunities to improve US-Azerbaijani energy cooperation, including by coordinating the United States’ clean energy technology goals with Azerbaijan’s renewable energy revolution.
After the Cold War, the Romanian government chose to slim down its sizeable defense industry, but it essentially maintained its state-backed structure, personnel, and management, thus producing a thoroughly inefficient system. Today, Romania retains a proclivity to purchase Western, and particularly American, defense equipment; but it has often neglected any thorough assessments of life cycle costs or real force design considerations.
Israel and the Axis of Resistance in the wake of the Gaza war
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.
On this week’s episode, Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs Charles Lister speaks with MEI Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor on the resurgence of the Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria and Iraq. This episode is the first in a several-part series looking at where the terrorist group stands today and its international footprint 10 years on from the founding of the 87-country Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
The IMF, CPEC, and Pakistan: Will the Chinese save Islamabad yet again?
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once heralded as a “game-changer,” has almost disappeared from the spotlight in recent years. The project has faced slow implementation, unpaid loans, corruption, and a dire security situation. How is China responding to Pakistan’s poor handling of CPEC, its perpetual financial troubles, and its periodic demands on China to bail it out?
A waiting game as the region teeters on the brink of full-blown war
Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it.
Russia and China’s differing engagements with the Houthis
Although Russia and China are in regular dialogue with the Houthis, the motivations that undergird the engagements of both countries differ markedly. The Houthis regard both Russia and China as partners against American unilateralism but have a warmer relationship with Moscow.
China’s humanitarian role: Insights from the Syrian refugee crisis
China’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis should be viewed within the broader context of its evolving approach to humanitarian aid and its overall involvement and objectives in the Syrian conflict.
The geopolitical implications of Houthi attacks and Israeli retaliation
The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.
Turkey is not “lost,” but it is time for other NATO allies to more strongly reengage
Turkey’s loyalty to the Alliance is frequently questioned, including accusations of fence-sitting, especially when it comes to Russia. To ask, “Who lost Turkey?” is to misread the situation. Turkey is increasingly, albeit carefully, moving away from the Kremlin.
CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse
On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.
The geopolitical causes of Georgia’s political crisis
Strengthening authoritarian rule in Georgia is not just a reflection of Georgia’s internal politics but also a symptom of the West’s broader disengagement from the wider Black Sea region. This disengagement has facilitated Russian state capture in Georgia, undermining the rule of law and democracy.
