Originally posted August 2011
It was a small group that set out on January 25, marching on National Police Day to decry the quotidian indignities they suffered at the hands of Husni Mubarak’s abusive police. Public protest in Egypt had long been a minority practice, rarely mustering more than a few hundred, or at best a few thousand, core movement activists. The organizers of the January 25 march expected the same base of dedicated demonstrators, and were shocked when the crowd swelled to more than 10,000.
Looking across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), there is a real fear that both reform movements and revolutions risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The momentum that made so many inspirational gains a few months ago is slowing, and the forces of conservatism remain in control. The only hope is that stamina, vigilance, and strategy will lead to a complete transition to democracy in at least one of the region’s countries. Not one revolution has yet been completed. If such a success is to happen soon, I hope it will be in Egypt.
Two big misconceptions have been circulated about the Egyptian revolution in January 2011: first in the international media, research, and policy circles, and second inside Egypt itself through the Egyptian media. In the international sphere, the misconception was that the Egyptian revolution was a “cute” Facebook, social media, social network, or internet revolution (in which scrappy youths banded together over the internet to create change). Inside Egypt, the second misconception is that it was a pre-planned, organized, orchestrated, well-led revolution.
The recent uprisings in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen share associated economic grievances and a common call for responsive government and a more dignified way of life; however, their underlying social dynamics are the product of diverse encounters with the outside world and years of oppression under very different political regimes. This is particularly true in the Libyan case, where socioeconomic and political structures and institutions shaped before as well as during the Qadhafi years have combined to produce a unique political economy.
*This article was first published by Freedom House on July 18, 2011.
*This Commentary first appeared on neimanwatchdog.org on July 8, 2011
While political debate still roils over the legality of the American role in Libya, other questions have grown more pressing. Those questions include whether the European side of the NATO operation can be sustained and whether the Libyan opposition truly has the ability to achieve their goal of taking down the regime of Muammar Qaddhafi & Co.
These issues are critical for those favoring US participation in NATO operations as well as those opposed.
The Middle East Institute and the UNDP are proud to host a discussion with UNDP Administrator Helen Clark, Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs Robert D. Hormats, and Middle East Institute Scholar Amb. Edward Walker about how best to address political, economic and human development needs in the Arab world today.
*Co-written by James P. Farwell. This article originally appeared in the National Interest online on June 9, 2011
Informed observers are increasingly raising the fear that new elections will put the Muslim Brotherhood in control of Egypt’s parliament and the presidency. Of course it will try. Senior Brotherhood leader Sobhi Saleh, who helped write Egypt’s interim constitution, said in a recent video that he expects the new government to be Islamist.
A version of this article appeared first in the interest review AmericanDiplomacy.org on May 30, 2011
2011 marks the beginning of a new era for both Egypt and Sudan, opening new possibilities to overcome the decade-old Nile water conflict. After the revolution in Egypt, many hope for a reorientation of the country’s foreign policy towards Africa and a potential new approach to negotiations on allocation of the Nile waters.
Most of the numerous articles written about the ongoing revolutions in the Middle East have focused on their political and/or economic causes and likely consequences. However, environmental and natural resource-related issues, which are also at the center of these revolutions, have received little or no attention.
The Maghreb extends about 2,000 kilometers on either side of the Greenwich meridian (-13° West from Cabo Jubi and 11.08° East to Kelibia) and is located on the same longitude as Europe. Although the Maghreb forms a single climatologic and geographical unit, it is a diverse landscape of mountains, fertile areas, and steppes. Nevertheless, the similarity of climate, geography, and culture in the Maghreb provides a solid foundation for developing a common environmental strategy.
Elaboration of a Sustainable Development Strategy
The Middle East Institute is proud to host Ambassador Ali Suleiman, Paul Pillar, and Jeffrey White for a discussion about the current situation in Libya and ways to address the stalemate between Libya's rebels and the forces of Colonel Qaddhafi. As the conflict drags into its third month, Aujali, Pillar and White will examine the humanitarian situation on the ground, NATO's recent operational innovations, and the role of the US and Europe in aiding Libya's rebels.
This Opinion first appeared in the Huffington Post on May 17, 2001
As the Arab world is getting ready to listen once again to a major speech by the U.S. President Barack Obama, many Egyptians wonder about how the outcomes of the political change will be received outside of the country, and especially from the U.S.