Summary
Summary
Israeli-Russian relations have attracted unusual levels of interest in recent months, against the backdrop of Russia’s military intervention in Syria and the unprecedented creation of a ‘de-confliction’ mechanism between the I.D.F. and the Russian forces. As is so often the case in today’s hyper-connected media and political environment, this small nucleus of reality was blown out of proportion and portrayed as nothing short of a strategic love affair.
Much has been made, particularly by Israelis, of the expanding horizons for collaboration between the Jewish state and Arab Gulf states. Israeli ministers and business people lose no opportunity to tout Israel’s interest in expanding ties of all sorts in a region viewed as a valuable market for Israeli industry and an intelligence gold mine.
For successive Israeli governments and the defense establishment, the Syrian arena has traditionally been considered Israel’s “front yard” in terms of threat analysis, early warning and force readiness. The defense budget, comprising 7.7 percent of Israel’s G.N.P. in 2011 (latest available data), included considerable allocations designed to meet the Syrian army’s threat.
After years of negotiations that produced sporadic headlines but few results, Israel and Turkey finally reached terms for reconciliation on June 27. While relations will not return to the “love affair” of the 1990s, there is reason for cautious optimism. Rapprochement will serve to create the foundation for a stronger dialogue between two of the Middle East’s most important actors.
In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Hassan Mneimneh, Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ISIS bombing in Baghdad, this week’s NATO summit in Warsaw, Israel’s outreach to Africa, and the trial in Iran over the ransacking of the Saudi embassy.
Iraqi PM Under Pressure after ISIS Atrocity
Hassan Mneimneh, MEI Scholar
After the liberation of Sirte from ISIS, now the really hard work begins. The nine-member Presidential Council (P.C.) and the Government of National Accord (G.N.A.) that it named under Prime Minister Fayez Serraj have yet to receive an affirmative vote from the House of Representatives (H.O.R.) in Tobruk. Although a majority of H.O.R. members were prepared many weeks ago to confirm Serraj and his cabinet, speaker Aquila Saleh declined to bring the matter to a vote.
The Libyan Presidential Council (P.C.), representing a rough consensus of Libyan political forces, is making slow but promising gains in several key areas. There will probably be setbacks on the road to the kind of progress that will generate wider support from both key Libyan factions and the general populace. Signs are encouraging, however, in areas such as security and legitimacy. It is too early to say that the Government of National Accord (G.N.A.) appointed by the P.C. is truly governing, but it is taking steps that provide more confidence to the international community.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Brexit’s impact on the Middle East, how Brexit is distracting the E.U. from Israel-Palestine issues, and Iran’s more moderate reshuffling of officials focusing on Syria.
Brexit’s Impact on the Middle East
Daniel Serwer, MEI Scholar
Israeli President Reuven “Ruby” Rivlin was recently asked about the prospects for a two-state solution to Israel’s long conflict with the Palestinians. He described this concept for building a future between Israel and its neighbor as “irrelevant.” Indeed, he claims to have said as much to President Barack Obama when they last met.
What does “irrelevant” mean in this context? The dictionary lists as its synonyms “immaterial” or “beside the point.”
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Scham, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent events including the battle against ISIS for Fallujah, Israel’s upcoming address to the EU Parliament, and Pakistan’s upcoming accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
ISIS to Lose Fallujah
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI chairman Richard A. Clarke responds to the mass shooting in Orlando, and Charles Lister and Antoun Issa provide analysis on events including the pushing back of ISIS in Libya and the upcoming meeting of Hamas and Fatah.
What To Do, and What Not To Do, to Stop the Next Orlando
Richard A. Clarke, Chairman of the Board of Governors
For several years, Israeli-Saudi collaboration over regional geostrategy to check Iranian influence has been the worst kept secret in the Middle East since the advent of Israel’s robust nuclear arsenal. Still, public coordination has been taboo, and while indirect, and even direct, coordination may be taking place behind closed doors, no official relationships can develop. This, of course, is due to the history between the state of Israel and the Arab world.
