Read the full article at War on the Rocks.
Despite the absence of a public and formal account of what transpired during the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Helsinki on Jul. 16, it seems that there is at least tacit agreement that effectively endorses the Syrian regime’s takeover of southern Syria and limits Iranian presence in Syrian areas near the Jordanian and Israeli borders.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on the first batch of U.S. sanctions on Iran, leaked emails that may undermine the Trump administration’s Mideast peace plan, and the assassination of a Syrian military scientist.
Will US sanctions bring Iran back to the negotiating table?
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks in Cairo, possible cooperation between the Syrian Democratic Council and the Assad regime, the protests in Iraq, the U.S.’s lifting of restrictions on aid to Egypt, and Imran Khan’s victory in the Pakistani elections.
A step forward for Palestinian reconciliation?
Nathan Stock, MEI Scholar
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on Secretary Pompeo’s speech on Iran, Erdogan’s decision to lift Turkey’s state of emergency, the cease-fire in Gaza, Iran’s continued threat in Syria, Trump’s tweets on Iran, and Vice President Dostum’s return to Afghanistan.
Trump’s Iran gamble
Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow @AlexVatanka
Tension between Iran and neighboring Afghanistan over water rights has reached new heights as declining rainfall, prolonged droughts, and mismanagement of water resources have severely affected agricultural production, food security and availability of drinking water in both countries. Tehran has warned of retaliatory actions if Kabul does not allow sufficient water into Iran’s water-stressed southeastern region, while Afghan officials accuse Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of aiding Taliban militants to sabotage dam projects in southern and western Afghanistan.
The eruption of conflict between the Syrian regime and the armed opposition exacerbated the political and sectarian divisions within the Lebanese government, causing it to sever relations with Damascus and dissociate itself from the war. Nevertheless, the Lebanese government eventually was forced to coordinate with the Assad regime in order to manage the refugee crisis and other spillover effects of the conflict. Beirut’s dealings with Damascus reflect the overarching aim of mitigating the impact of the war on the relations between the Lebanese Sunni and Shiite communities.
Last week, rebel forces in southwestern Syria agreed to a Russia-brokered deal to surrender Deraa province and lay down their arms, possibly securing strategic victory for the Assad regime in the long-running Syrian conflict. MEI’s Robert Ford and Charles Lister join guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the significance of these developments and whether the United States is preparing to withdraw from Syria in a broader agreement with Russia.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Bilal Y. Saab provide analysis on Iran’s efforts to stay in Syria, Pompeo’s upcoming trip to Abu Dhabi, the Pakistan Muslim League’s struggle in the upcoming National Assembly elections, and Qatar’s decision to renege on its Russian S-400 purchase.
Will Iran leave Syria?
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on the US’s silence amid the Assad regime’s expansion, the Iranian president’s trip to Europe, the uptick in violence after Iraq’s elections, and the upcoming Pakistani parliamentary elections.
The decline of the US’s role in Syria
Charles Lister, Senior Fellow
After years of international intervention, ISIS was routed from its Iraqi stronghold in Mosul and from its so-called capital in the Syrian city of Raqqa last year. However, the group remains dangerous both in the region and globally. Charles Lister discusses how ISIS is operating today, and what the international community must do to combat it.
In an interview with a state-run Iranian TV channel, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that the evolving dynamics in southern and northern Syria would not alter “strategic” relations between Damascus and Tehran and emphasized that his government would be open to permitting Iran to establish military bases on the Syrian soil if needed. “After the liberation of Ghouta, a plan to advance toward southern Syria was discussed.
Several countries have engaged in a flurry of diplomatic moves in recent days to prevent combat between Israeli and Iranian forces in southern Syria from escalating into full-scale war. MEI senior fellows Robert Ford and Charles Lister join host Paul Salem to discuss these moves and the state of the Syrian conflict.
The way forward in Afghanistan seems as unclear as it has ever been. An outright military victory against the Taliban and other insurgent groups appears to be unachievable. The prospect of insurgents overrunning the country soon appears similarly unlikely. At the same time, a negotiated peace seems presently improbable. At least on terms outlined by the Kabul government and international community, the Taliban shows little interest in reconciliation.