Research & Commentary Results

Earlier today, hundreds of people marched the streets of Lashkargah, the capital of Afghanistan’s volatile Helmand Province, to protest Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s latest remarks on water dispute with Afghanistan, the Afghan media reported. Speaking at an international conference on tackling dust storm, Rouhani had criticized the Afghan government and its international allies for constructing dams and preventing the flow of sufficient water into Iran.

With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, W. Robert Pearson, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on ISIS’ continued threat to security despite losing territory, President Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Sudan as a political calculation, and Mohammed Dahlan’s effort to return to Palestinian politics.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Turkey has become a critical conduit for international humanitarian operations and life-saving economic support to approximately three million Syrian refugees. Turkey’s decision to restrict various international NGOs from operating within its territory is now disrupting crucial provisions to those in both northern Syria, and inside its own borders.

After President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh last month, Iranian leaders were worried about the creation of a U.S.-supported alliance of regional Arab states led by Saudi Arabia to counter Irani

A fierce spat between Qatar and leading Arab nations could add another complication to the already strained relationship between the United States and Turkey. Ankara wants to calm the tension, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken by phone with the leaders of Qatar, Russia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to reduce tensions. He has also expedited legislation to deploy troops to Qatar as part of a military agreement signed in 2014. President Donald Trump, however, supports, and even takes credit for, the Saudi move to isolate its smaller neighbor.

June 1, 2017 – Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, joins host Gonul Tol for a discussion of the tensions in Turkey’s relations with Europe in the wake of the Turkish referendum and a recent meeting between President Erdogan and E.U. leaders.

Reacting to today’s deadly bombing in Kabul, Iranian leaders and media outlets blamed U.S. policies and military presence in Afghanistan for growing extremism and instability in the war-ravaged country. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the Kabul attack shows “Takfiri terrorism recognizes no boundaries” and called on regional countries to act in unison to fight terrorism instead of seeking help from outsiders – an apparent reference to the United States, which has more than 8,000 troops in Afghanistan training and assisting the country’s security forces.

In this week’s Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the beginning of the final phase of the battle to retake Mosul, Germany’s consideration for withdrawing troops from Turkey, and Qatar’s fragile relations within the G.C.C.

Afghan officials

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Alex Vatanka, Jonathan M. Winer, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s trip to Israel and the prospects for a peace process, the reelection of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russia’s planned naval drill off the coast of Libya this week, and the Afghan Taliban’s decision to reject peace talks.

Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?

Unlikeliest of Allies

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet President Donald Trump as a frustrated and disappointed man. His hopes for a clean slate after strained relations with President Barack Obama have been dashed as Trump has endorsed his predecessor’s policies against key Turkish demands. Importantly, Trump last week approved an Obama era plan to arm Syrian Kurds in preparation for the upcoming battle to retake Raqqa from ISIS.

An editorial in Afghanistan’s largest daily Hasht-e Sobh accuses the Iranian government of “playing a double game” in Afghanistan. The article analyzes Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s weekend visit to Kabul and warns that such diplomatic outreach would yield no results unless the Iranian government cuts ties with terrorist groups fighting in Afghanistan. “Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s trip to Kabul was an opportunity for high-ranking officials of the national unity government to share Afghanistan’s legitimate concerns with him,” the paper stressed.