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Research & Commentary Results

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US and Iran testing diplomatic waters
معهد الشرق الأوسط
  • Podcast
  • US and Iran testing diplomatic waters

    Randa Slim, director of MEI’s Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues initiative, and MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka join guest host Jerry Feierstein to discuss recent regional developments that may be early indicators of an emerging round of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, and what renewed talks might be able to achieve.

    August 30, 2019

    Syria: Debates won’t change reality
    TOPSHOT - A convoy of US forces armoured vehicles drives near the village of Yalanli, on the western outskirts of the northern Syrian city of Manbij, on March 5, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / DELIL SOULEIMAN (Photo credit should read DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP/Getty Images)
  • التحليل
  • Syria: Debates won’t change reality

    Over the past few weeks, my colleagues at MEI have debated whether the U.S. should stay in Syria or leave. Here I’d make a different argument: that it doesn’t really matter. The president has already made the decision to leave, and while his aides may have been able to slow roll the troop drawdown, the reality is that Donald Trump has made it clear the U.S. will not disburse any additional resources. Even within the 2020 Democratic field, not a single candidate has advocated increasing resources.

    August 29, 2019

    The Syrian Oil Crisis: Causes, Possible Responses, and Implications
    Iranian supertanker Grace 1 off the coast of Gibraltar on August 15, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • The Syrian Oil Crisis: Causes, Possible Responses, and Implications

    Unlike most other goods, the inflation-adjusted prices of oil and oil derivatives actually became cheaper in the years after the Syrian uprising and the loss of most of the country’s oil fields. Iran stepped in to fill the gap by shipping oil by sea through the Suez Canal. In recent months, however, these shipments seem to have ground to a halt, crippling regime-controlled areas. This paper examines several competing explanations for the slowdown in Iranian oil shipments, explores a range of possible responses for the Assad regime, and takes a closer look at the implications for the regime, its allies, and regular Syrians.

    August 28, 2019

    Why does Trump treat Iran and North Korea so differently?
    WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 08: U.S. President Donald Trump holds up a memorandum that reinstates sanctions on Iran after he announced his decision to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in the Diplomatic Room at the White House May 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. After two and a half years of negotiations, Iran agreed in 2015 to end its nuclear program in exchange for Western countries, including the United States, lifting decades of economic sanctions. Since then international inspectors have n
  • التحليل
  • Why does Trump treat Iran and North Korea so differently?

    Iran and North Korea both get a great deal of attention from the international community — for all the wrong reasons. Yet while U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un have met several times now, shaking hands, smiling, and posing for photos, Trump has not once met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani or other senior Iranian officials. What accounts for this difference?

    August 27, 2019

    Countering and courting Iran: Israeli-Palestinian objectives in Iraq
    An Israeli F-15 I fighter jet launches anti-missile flares at it performs during a graduation ceremony of Israeli air force pilots at the Hatzerim Air Force base in Israel's Negev desert on December 26, 2018. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP) (Photo credit should read JACK GUEZ/AFP/Getty Images)
  • التحليل
  • Countering and courting Iran: Israeli-Palestinian objectives in Iraq

    Israel has reportedly expanded its operations against Iran in the Middle East. In July, Israeli and foreign media attributed airstrikes on Iranian targets near Baghdad to Israel. Last week, U.S. officials confirmed that Israel was responsible for the attacks, which mark the first such air raids on Iraq since 1981, when Tel Aviv destroyed Saddam Hussein’s Osirak nuclear reactor.

    August 26, 2019

    Israel’s new front in the fight against Iran
    An Israeli F-35 fighter jet performs during an air show at the graduation ceremony of Israeli pilots in the Hatzerim Israeli Air Force base in the Negev desert, near the southern Israeli city of Beer Sheva, on June 27, 2019.
  • التحليل
  • Israel’s new front in the fight against Iran

    On Aug. 12, an explosion took place inside an ammunition warehouse in the al-Saqr military base in southern Baghdad, triggering hundreds of mortars and rockets to fire off in all directions throughout urban, populated areas. One person was killed and 29 wounded, as munitions and debris scattered as far as 5 kilometers away.

    What will the European Council's new president mean for EU-MENA relations?
    Belgium's Prime minister Charles Michel (R) addresses journalists as he arrives for the second day of an European Union leaders summit to discuss Syria, relations with Russia, trade and migration, on October 21, 2016 at the European Council, in Brussels
  • التحليل
  • What will the European Council's new president mean for EU-MENA relations?

    While some changes may be in the offing, for now most signs suggest that regional leaders should expect neither new opportunities, nor new challenges, but more likely a broad continuity of existing EU policy toward the region.

    August 20, 2019

    Monday Briefing: A mixed record for PM Khan’s first year in office
  • التحليل
  • Monday Briefing: A mixed record for PM Khan’s first year in office

    This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Arif Rafiq, Ibrahim Jalal, Michael Sexton and Eliza Campbell, and Alex Vatanka.

    August 19, 2019

    The Future Structure of the Yemeni State
    A Yemeni waves a national flag during a rally celebrating the death of Yemeni ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh a day after he was killed, in the capital Sanaa on December 5, 2017.
  • التحليل
  • The Future Structure of the Yemeni State

    After more than four years of fighting, the war in Yemen continues to drag on. Although the rival parties came to a deal at the end of 2018 in Stockholm, they have failed to fully abide by its terms due to ambiguity about the future Yemeni state. Currently, there are multiple, rival authorities in different regions of the country, and the individuals in power disagree whether there should be one state, two states, or multiple states. They also disagree whether the future states of Yemen should be independent or linked through a federal or confederal system of government. Profound questions about the country’s future remain unanswered, and before negotiations can move forward the parties will likely need to address the elephant in the room: the future structure of Yemen as a state.

    August 14, 2019

    Can Russia play a role in ending the Yemeni civil war?
    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) shows the way to his Yemeni counterpart Abdel Malek al-Mekhlafi during a meeting in Moscow on January 22, 2018.
  • التحليل
  • Can Russia play a role in ending the Yemeni civil war?

    In late July, Russian officials met with Yemen’s Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik and representatives of the Houthi Supreme Political Council to discuss the resolution of the Yemeni civil war. These meetings underscored Russia’s ability to balance favorable relations with Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Houthis: Moscow supported Abdulmalik’s vision for a political solution to the Yemeni civil war and concurred five days later with Houthi criticisms of U.S. military deployments to the Persian Gulf.

    August 12, 2019

    Messages for Peace: Iranian Artist Imprisoned for Music Releases New Album
  • التحليل
  • Messages for Peace: Iranian Artist Imprisoned for Music Releases New Album

    Revolutionary Guards came to Mehdi Rajabian’s door on October 5, 2013. His crime? Running a music production company — Barg Music — that the Iranian government deemed offensive to Islam and the regime. Barg Music worked with restricted artists in Iran, particularly women, who have been legally forbidden from performing solo since the Iranian Revolution.

    August 7, 2019