The parties to the intractable Yemen war appear further entrenched in their enmity than ever before, despite U.S. and British efforts to push Yemeni leaders toward new negotiations.
In this Weekly Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gonul Tol, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on issues including the UNSC’s inability to administer diplomatic solutions in Syria, the rebuilding of diplomatic ties between Russia and Turkey, and OPEC’s ongoing consideration of how to control member state oil production.
Diplomatic Dead-End on Syria
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Russia’s recent escalation of military force in Syria, deteriorating Saudi-Iranian relations, and an escalation in the Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
Russia’s Sharp Escalation in Syria
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
“[Food insecurity has] the potential to amplify destabilization, engender violence, and even accelerate state failure processes in an already geopolitically charged region”
– Andy Spiess in Food Security in the GCC Economies (2012)
I. Introduction
Continuing low oil prices have prompted Persian Gulf states to diversify their heavily petro-dependent economies. This issue is forcing the oil-rich states to invest and expand their potential as international trade hubs as a pathway away from the time bomb of single commodity exports. As many Gulf states have outlined in economic plans, as well as developed on the ground, maritime trade is an increasingly essential link connecting the Middle East to the global economy.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, Charles Schmitz, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on current issues including Turkey’s regional diplomacy as President Erdogan is set to visit Tehran, the Iranian perspective on Turkey’s role in the region, Secretary Kerry’s visit to Saudi Arabia amid renewed fighting in Yemen, and ongoing attempts to broker a cease-fire deal in Syria.
China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative does not provide an equal opportunity for all states, and, in the case of the Gulf, it is Iran that will likely benefit over all others. The states of the G.C.C. also factor into Beijing’s plan, just not to the same degree―and that is the problem. Yet, as this essay shows, using OBOR and existing comparative advantages will allow the states of the G.C.C. to balance Iran’s potential windfall.
Summary
Much has been made, particularly by Israelis, of the expanding horizons for collaboration between the Jewish state and Arab Gulf states. Israeli ministers and business people lose no opportunity to tout Israel’s interest in expanding ties of all sorts in a region viewed as a valuable market for Israeli industry and an intelligence gold mine.
Read the full article on ABC News.
In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Hassan Mneimneh, Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ISIS bombing in Baghdad, this week’s NATO summit in Warsaw, Israel’s outreach to Africa, and the trial in Iran over the ransacking of the Saudi embassy.
Iraqi PM Under Pressure after ISIS Atrocity
Hassan Mneimneh, MEI Scholar
Summary
For several years, Israeli-Saudi collaboration over regional geostrategy to check Iranian influence has been the worst kept secret in the Middle East since the advent of Israel’s robust nuclear arsenal. Still, public coordination has been taboo, and while indirect, and even direct, coordination may be taking place behind closed doors, no official relationships can develop. This, of course, is due to the history between the state of Israel and the Arab world.
In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Herman Franssen, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the battle for Fallujah, Thursday’s OPEC meeting, and Saad Hariri’s defeat in Tripoli, Lebanon.
Tough Battle Ahead for Iraqi Forces in Fallujah
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow
Regional Cooperation Series
This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute’s Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry.
Summary