Research & Commentary Results

Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised observers when he announced on March 14 that he is going to begin withdrawing Russian military forces from Syria. As the director of MEI’s Initiative for Track II Dialogues Randa Slim has worked extensively with all parties on the Syrian conflict, including Russian participants. She discusses the meaning of Putin’s decision with MEI Senior Editor Antoun Issa.

Ten days ago, under the relative calm of Syria’s cessation of hostilities, hundreds of civilians gathered in the Idlib town of Maarat al-Numan to celebrate the continuation of their populist revolution.

This essay explores how, if the European Union had a more complete refugee policy—one that covers all aspects of refugee arrival, reception, and protection—the Syria crisis might have been mitigated, if not averted. The essay focuses specifically on the desirability and advantages of resettlement (among other mooted policies) as a vital protection tool.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, and David Mack provide analysis on recent events including the ceasefire agreement in Syria, Iran’s elections, and how the United States should respond to the growing threat of ISIS in Libya.

On the Syria Ceasefire

Robert S. Ford
Senior Fellow

Turkey is confronting a nightmare as its two archenemies, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), gain ground in Syria with the help of U.S. and Russian air cover. Turkey has long called for a no-fly zone in northern Syria to protect areas held by the opposition and a halt to the PYD advances west of the Euphrates. Frustrated with U.S. cooperation with the PYD, Ankara has insisted that the PYD is a terrorist organization and poses a grave danger to Turkey’s national security.

In the first installment of a new series of weekly briefings on the most important regional issues, MEI experts Randa Slim, Alex Vatanka, and Paul Salem analyze recent events including the ceasefire agreement in Syria, upcoming elections in Iran, and Saudi Arabia’s suspension of military aid to Lebanon.

Will New Cease-fire Deal in Syria Succeed?

Randa Slim
Director, Initiative for Track II Dialogues

MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Gonul Tol weigh in on the intensifying battles in northern Syria, with dire predictions for the humanitarian situation as well as for the internal stability of neighbors. Lister argues the loss of the Azaz corridor would be a “catastrophic morale blow” to the Syrian opposition, while Tol believes current Turkish attacks on YPG positions is not a prelude to an invasion.

The cessation of hostilities was to begin in Syria on February 19. As was the case with the late 2011 and mid-2012 ceasefire efforts, this one is likely to fail. Instead of halting fire, the Syrian government is currently trying to isolate and assert dominion over the rebel-held portion of Aleppo, and, just as importantly, to block armed opposition supply lines extending down from Turkey. The Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian allies want to impose surrender terms on the armed opposition, not negotiate a compromise political deal.

Five years of war have unexpectedly reset gender roles in Syria. With so many men killed or missing, women are finding themselves the main supporters of their families and communities, and are often breaking with tradition and cultural taboos.

“Activists that engaged with the revolution have experienced big differences in gender relations, especially among the most conservative women,” said a 30-year-old underground activist and filmmaker in government-held central Damascus. She goes by the name Rafia, and she spoke to this author by Skype.

Read the full article on CNN.

Turkey’s nightmare is coming true.

Not only is the battle for Aleppo sending tens of thousands of desperate people fleeing toward Turkey, but the fall of the rebel-held city would deliver a major blow to Ankara’s Syria policy.

February 2016 marks the beginning of a new phase in the Chinese lunar calendar, drawing to a close a year marked by heightened risks and fortuitous gains in China’s efforts to secure its interests in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This essay addresses three questions: How well has China adapted to the conflict and instability that have swept the region? And as we enter the Year of the Red Fire Monkey, what are the concerns that are likely to preoccupy Chinese leaders? What, if any, policy adjustments by Beijing, can realistically be expected in light of the current circumstances and uncertain prospects for the region and for China itself?

That the Syrian opposition took weeks to agree on a representative delegation hits at an essential problem with the Geneva process: its format. The Russian, American and U.N. architects of the process have retained a regime/opposition binary model that is no longer reflective of the multi-player conflict on the ground.

Amb. Robert Ford delivered the following prepared remarks at a hearing of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on January 12, 2016. Click here to watch C-SPAN’s coverage of the hearing.

Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee,

It is an honor to be on this distinguished panel.  Thank you for inviting me.

On the eve of the third round of Syrian peace talks, it is becoming clear that the political track is far removed from the military trajectories on the ground. While diplomats scurry to draw up agendas for Geneva III, and opposition delegates argue over representation, the war in Syria continues on its own course seemingly oblivious to the murmurs around it.

This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”