Research & Commentary Results

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) media outlets continue to justify and encourage attacks by Yemeni Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia. I.R.G.C.-affiliated Fars News Agency, for example, ran a number of news stories and commentaries today glorifying the Houthis’ latest attacks against Saudi military targets, including a recent attack targeting a Saudi warship and a scud missile that the Houthis claimed hit a military base near the Saudi capital.

Hardline Iranian media are enthusiastically speculating that the conflict in Yemen will soon enter a more dangerous phase with the intensification in the use of missiles by the Yemeni rebels.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Paul Scham, Randa Slim, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s apparent lack of a coherent strategy in the implementation of executive orders, the possibility of an improved relationship between Israel and the UK in the wake of Brexit, the Astana meeting to discuss the Syrian cease-fire deal, bilateral efforts to improve Turkish-Israel relations, and the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Pakistani relations under the Trump administration.

On February 5, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, said that “certain countries are worried about the weakening of terrorist groups in Syria.” Shamkhani made the remarks after his meeting with visiting Russian president’s Special Envoy for Syrian Affairs, Alexander Lavrentiev. Shamkhani and Lavrentiev praised the latest Syrian peace talks held in Astana and which were brokered by Russia, Turkey and Iran.

The United Arab Emirates has summoned Iran’s charge d’affaires to protest Iran’s arming of Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iranian and

President Donald Trump’s January 25 remark that he “will absolutely do safe zones in Syria” has prompted worries in Tehran.

If President Donald Trump’s pick of James Mattis as defense secretary is an indication of the direction of foreign policy in the Middle East, then the U.S. stance towards Yemen will likely align more closely with the approach of Gulf states in pursuing a military victory over the Houthi-Saleh alliance in Sanaa. The Obama administration had diverged, at least partly, from the Gulf position in Yemen by pushing the G.C.C. and the Hadi government toward a negotiated settlement.

A senior Iranian official credited the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) for

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s controversial travel ban, the Syrian regime’s dismissal of calls for a cease-fire, and the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Following the Houthi takeover of Sana’a, Iran expanded its academic and cultural exchange programs in Yemen’s education sector. Iran initiated these programs in response to a Saudi-financed program to increase the number of Salafi mosques and madrassas in northern Yemen in the 1990s.

On January 27, Iranian media reported that top Iranian envoy, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who visited Damascus this week, also met the Iranian supreme leader’s special representative to Syria, Abolfazl Tabatabai Ashkezari. Ashkezari was appointed by the personal decree of Khamenei in March 2016. He has been living in Syria since.

The January 26 meeting between the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hossein Amir Abdollahian is another important sign that Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has at best very little influence over Iran’s Syria’s policy. The official title of Amir Abdollahian is “Director General of International Affairs” at the Iranian parliament, the Majlis. However, this generic title given to Abdullahian is in no way a true reflection of his power in Tehran and the critical base of support he enjoys.

Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”

Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.