Research & Commentary Results

The International Monetary Fund announced in July that it has approved a three-year, $5.34 billion loan for Iraq under the Stand-By Arrangement facility, which it said was focused on “implementing economic and financial policies to help the country cope with lower oil prices and ensure debt sustainability.” The promised financial assistance was made conditional on—among other things—Baghdad settling all debts to international oil companies (IOCs) without adding new debts.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and David Mack provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Obama’s upcoming final speech to the UN General Assembly, the Syrian collapsed ceasefire, the buildup to an eventual Mosul offensive, Rouhani’s trip to Latin America, and Libya’s oil exports.

Ongoing conflict is robbing Iraq of both its future and its past by stripping the country of its tangible cultural heritage.[1] The Islamic State, as part of its strategy, is deliberately seeking to erase all aspects of Iraqi identity which compete with its own dogma. Iraq’s cultural heritage faces additional threats in the form of illicit looting, vandalism, government neglect, and political infighting.

In this issues of MEI’s weekly briefing, contributors Daniel Serwer, Randa Slim, Eran Etzion, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including discussions between the United States, Russia and Turkey on Syria policy at the G20 Summit, the Syrian opposition’s transition plans, Russian moves on Israel-Palestine, and Iran’s energy policy.

“[Food insecurity has] the potential to amplify destabilization, engender violence, and even accelerate state failure processes in an already geopolitically charged region”

– Andy Spiess in Food Security in the GCC Economies (2012)

I. Introduction

While the post-invasion map of Iraq is often conceived as a neatly trisected nation with a Kurdish top end, Sunni middle, and Shiite south, the reality is one of mixed marriages and common humanity.

Although the changes once-mixed and cosmopolitan Iraqi cities have experienced since 2003 are telling (see maps of changes to Baghdad neighborhood demographics since 2003), there are many people and projects that cross the post-invasion sectarian divide.

Representatives of the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) are currently in the process of shaping the information environment ahead of a desired referendum on Kurdish independence. Aside from a lobbying campaign strongly focused on Washington—the K.R.G. has spent more on lobbying in the United States than Pakistan—leaders have been making provocative statements regarding territorial ambitions.[1] K.R.G.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Zubair Iqbal, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on issues including India’s Middle East policy as its foreign minister is set to visit Iraq and Syria, the opening of relations between Iran and Turkey following the latter’s recent failed coup, and the latest signs of tension within Afghanistan’s shaky unity government.

Summary

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI expert W. Robert Pearson provides analysis on the failed coup in Turkey and the impending crackdown on opposition. Marvin Weinbaum considers whether the unpopularity of Pakistan’s government could put it at risk of a military coup of its own. And Charles Lister looks at how ISIS is adapting in the face of territorial losses in Iraq and Syria.

The current Palestinian leadership does not appear ready for sudden independence. Despite the push for Palestinian statehood, there remains weaknesses in the Palestinian political establishment that undermine this quest. Political and social fragmentation, a lack of representative leadership and an inability to apply the rule of law seem to indicate that if Palestine were to become an independent state tomorrow, it would falter.

The walls of the Oman Library are decorated with delicate painted eyes, colored in hazel and warm greys. After only a few steps, their discreet, and grief-stricken nature gives way to boldness and haunting certainty. They are eyes that refuse to be ignored.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Hassan Mneimneh, Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ISIS bombing in Baghdad, this week’s NATO summit in Warsaw, Israel’s outreach to Africa, and the trial in Iran over the ransacking of the Saudi embassy.

Iraqi PM Under Pressure after ISIS Atrocity
Hassan Mneimneh, MEI Scholar

Lieutenant General Abdulwahab al-Saadi, the Iraqi commander of the Iraqi forces fighting to retake Fallujah, said June 23 that his units held 80 percent of the city. This contrasts with the estimate from the U.S. military spokesman in Iraq on June 22, who said that Iraqi forces held only a third of the city. Whatever the exact figure, after heavy fighting, often street-by-street, the Islamic State will lose the city.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Brexit’s impact on the Middle East, how Brexit is distracting the E.U. from Israel-Palestine issues, and Iran’s more moderate reshuffling of officials focusing on Syria. 

Brexit’s Impact on the Middle East
Daniel Serwer, MEI Scholar