Monday Briefing: The Middle East is the closest it has ever been to an all-out war
After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.
The impact of Turkish-Syrian normalization on the SDF
As speculation continues about a possible Turkish-Syrian normalization, what might such a process mean for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a close US ally? In a new piece for MEI, Amer al-Ahmed lays out three possible scenarios for the future of the SDF amid normalization.
Iran strives to become a pan-sectarian Islamic power
The success of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 marked the first time in modern history that a secular regime in the Middle East was toppled in favor of a theocratic, Islamist order. Over the following decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary objective has been to become a regional hegemon. In pursuit of this goal, Iran’s Shi’a clerical leadership has been willing to adopt a remarkably pragmatic approach, allowing it to often diverge from its religious dogma.
A waiting game as the region teeters on the brink of full-blown war
Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it.
Pakistan’s political scene looks increasingly unsettled and complicated
The deep rift between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and Pakistan’s civil-military establishment shows no sign of weakening but appears to be shifting. The coalition government and its military sponsors, so recently seen as having taken command of the political heights, are now showing signs of panicking as they appear to be losing the initiative and ability to set the narrative.
China’s humanitarian role: Insights from the Syrian refugee crisis
China’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis should be viewed within the broader context of its evolving approach to humanitarian aid and its overall involvement and objectives in the Syrian conflict.
Six years ago, the Syrian regime conquered the southern province of Daraa, popularly known by millions of Syrians as the “cradle of the revolution.” That military victory represented a pivotal moment for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. After all, it was the last time the regime captured a sizable swath of opposition territory, and in doing so in July 2018, its impunity was laid bare for all the world to see. On paper, Daraa had been designated a “de-escalation zone” after months of intensive international diplomacy in which the United States had played a central role.
CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse
On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.
Syrian armed groups divided over Turkey-Syria normalization push
Despite their popular nature, the protests in northwestern Syria, sparked by racist attacks on Syrians over the border in Turkey, have exposed the rifts and divisions between various opposition factions. Bilal Samir explores the positions of the major military groups in Turkish-controlled areas and assesses how closely they align with Turkey’s policy.
Smoke and mirrors: The Syrian regime's dubious anti-drug campaigns
The Syrian regime recently announced that it had arrested over 2,000 people in Damascus on drug-related charges during the first half of 2024. However, the relatively small amount of drugs confiscated suggests the regime is focusing on arresting users and street-level pushers rather than going after the major producers and traffickers. This highlights how the Syrian regime manipulates drug crackdowns to serve multiple agendas while ensuring the flow of illicit drugs continues uninterrupted.
Central Asian states look to Iran as they seek to expand regional transit corridors
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, it prompted the Central Asian states, and others, to reconsider Iran’s potential role as a transit country. In a little more than two years, Central Asia’s view of Iran has changed from international pariah to key link in lucrative trade routes.
Why Pakistan is looking to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to ramp up investment
Pakistan’s government is pursuing a two-track approach to stabilize the country’s long-troubled economy. It is engaged in lengthy negotiations with the IMF to secure at least $6 billion in loans to shore up its ability to service its external debt. At the same time, Islamabad is also trying to woo its Gulf allies, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in a bid to diversify its sources of external financing, address the lingering threat of insolvency, and put its economy on an upward trajectory of sustainable growth.
